Start Isaiah Likely or Mark Andrews? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Mark Andrews over Isaiah Likely in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project Mark Andrews at 2.5 points and Isaiah Likely at 3.0, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Mark Andrews at ADP 136 and Isaiah Likely at 139. Market coverage on Mark Andrews is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 2.6 fantasy points for Mark Andrews, with 33 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 3.0 fantasy points for Isaiah Likely, with 30 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

That puts Isaiah Likely 0.4 points ahead of Mark Andrews on the books.

Week 1 matchups

Mark Andrews and BAL visit IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 12.6 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 16th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 66 yards and no touchdowns against IND.

Isaiah Likely and NYG host DAL on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

DAL allowed 29.7 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns against DAL.

By points allowed to the position, Isaiah Likely has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Mark Andrews was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Isaiah Likely was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Mark Andrews played 17 games for BAL and scored 131.0 PPR points, 7.7 a game, finishing TE16.

He caught 48 of 70 targets for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 321 air yards.

He was on the field for 62 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Mark Andrews, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 3 targets and 2 catches for 14 yards, 3.4 PPR points.

Mark Andrews, Week 17 of 2025 against GB: 31 of 76 snaps, 4 targets and 4 catches for 28 yards, 6.8 PPR points.

Mark Andrews, Week 16 of 2025 against NE: 24 of 55 snaps, 1 carry for 3 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 21 yards, 4.4 PPR points.

In 2025, Isaiah Likely played 14 games for BAL and scored 61.7 PPR points, 4.4 a game, finishing TE45.

He caught 27 of 36 targets for 307 yards and 1 touchdown, with 6 red zone targets and 190 air yards.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Isaiah Likely, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 2 targets and 2 catches for 32 yards, 5.2 PPR points.

Isaiah Likely, Week 17 of 2025 against GB: 53 of 76 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 27 yards, 5.7 PPR points.

Isaiah Likely, Week 16 of 2025 against NE: 22 of 55 snaps, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

How Week 1 went

Mark Andrews scored 8.9 PPR points and Isaiah Likely scored 27.8.

The call was wrong: Isaiah Likely outscored Mark Andrews by 18.9.

Mark Andrews finished 6.4 points above the 2.6 the props implied.

Mark Andrews, Week 1 against IND: 49 of 68 snaps, 6 targets and 4 catches for 49 yards, 8.9 PPR points.

Mark Andrews finished as the week's TE20 in PPR scoring.

Isaiah Likely finished 24.8 points above the 3.0 the props implied.

Isaiah Likely, Week 1 against DAL: 34 of 69 snaps, 8 targets and 8 catches for 78 yards, 2 touchdowns, 27.8 PPR points.

Isaiah Likely finished as the week's TE1 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Dallas Goedert over Mark Andrews.
• Start Dalton Kincaid over Mark Andrews.
• Start Mark Andrews over David Njoku.
• Start Dallas Goedert over Isaiah Likely.
• Start Dalton Kincaid over Isaiah Likely.
• Start George Kittle over Isaiah Likely.