Start Joe Burrow or Josh Allen? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Joe Burrow over Josh Allen in Week 1.

Josh Allen is listed inactive on our news wire, so this is not a close call: start Joe Burrow. Drafters take Joe Burrow at ADP 53 and Josh Allen at 34. Market coverage on Joe Burrow is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 12.0 fantasy points for Josh Allen, with 65 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 1.2 fantasy points for Joe Burrow, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

That puts Josh Allen 10.8 points ahead of Joe Burrow on the books.

Week 1 matchups

Josh Allen and BUF visit HOU on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

HOU allowed 35.7 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 2nd most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 334 yards and 2 touchdowns against HOU, with no interceptions.

Joe Burrow and CIN host TB on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

TB allowed 15.2 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 13th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 254 yards and a touchdown against TB, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Josh Allen has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Josh Allen was listed as inactive when the call was made.

Joe Burrow was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Josh Allen played 17 games for BUF and scored 374.6 PPR points, 22.0 a game, finishing QB1.

He completed 319 of 460 passes for 3668 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and ran 112 times for 579 yards and 14 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Josh Allen, Week 18 of 2025 against NYJ: 0 of 0 passes for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Josh Allen, Week 17 of 2025 against PHI: 76 of 76 snaps, 23 of 35 passes for 262 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 7 carries for 27 yards, 23.2 PPR points.

Josh Allen, Week 16 of 2025 against CLE: 50 of 50 snaps, 12 of 19 passes for 130 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 7 carries for 17 yards, 6.9 PPR points.

In 2025, Joe Burrow played 8 games for CIN and scored 139.5 PPR points, 17.4 a game, finishing QB29.

He completed 173 of 259 passes for 1809 yards, 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran 14 times for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Joe Burrow, Week 18 of 2025 against CLE: 29 of 39 passes for 236 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 17 yards, 22.1 PPR points.

Joe Burrow, Week 17 of 2025 against ARI: 64 of 77 snaps, 24 of 31 passes for 305 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 2 yards, 20.4 PPR points.

Joe Burrow, Week 16 of 2025 against MIA: 55 of 61 snaps, 25 of 32 passes for 309 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 6 yards, 29.0 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Joe Burrow scored 15.2 PPR points and Josh Allen scored 35.7.

The call was wrong: Josh Allen outscored Joe Burrow by 20.5.

Joe Burrow finished 13.9 points above the 1.2 the props implied.

Joe Burrow, Week 1 against TB: 64 of 64 snaps, 25 of 35 passes for 254 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 20 yards, 15.2 PPR points.

Joe Burrow finished as the week's QB20 in PPR scoring.

Josh Allen finished 23.7 points above the 12.0 the props implied.

Josh Allen, Week 1 against HOU: 58 of 58 snaps, 20 of 29 passes for 334 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 23 yards, 35.7 PPR points.

Josh Allen finished as the week's QB2 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Drake Maye over Josh Allen.
• Start Lamar Jackson over Josh Allen.
• Start Dak Prescott over Joe Burrow.
• Start Joe Burrow over Drake Maye.
• Start Jalen Hurts over Joe Burrow.