Start Joe Burrow or Jalen Hurts? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Jalen Hurts over Joe Burrow in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project Jalen Hurts at 3.0 points and Joe Burrow at 1.2, a gap of 1.7. Drafters take Jalen Hurts at ADP 73 and Joe Burrow at 53. Market coverage on Jalen Hurts is 40 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 1.2 fantasy points for Joe Burrow, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 3.0 fantasy points for Jalen Hurts, with 40 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

That puts Jalen Hurts 1.7 points ahead of Joe Burrow on the books.

Week 1 matchups

Joe Burrow and CIN host TB on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

TB allowed 15.2 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 13th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 254 yards and a touchdown against TB, with an interception.

Jalen Hurts and PHI host WAS on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

WAS allowed 24.7 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 8th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 203 yards and 3 touchdowns against WAS, with no interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, Jalen Hurts has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Joe Burrow was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Jalen Hurts was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Joe Burrow played 8 games for CIN and scored 139.5 PPR points, 17.4 a game, finishing QB29.

He completed 173 of 259 passes for 1809 yards, 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran 14 times for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Joe Burrow, Week 18 of 2025 against CLE: 29 of 39 passes for 236 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 17 yards, 22.1 PPR points.

Joe Burrow, Week 17 of 2025 against ARI: 64 of 77 snaps, 24 of 31 passes for 305 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 2 yards, 20.4 PPR points.

Joe Burrow, Week 16 of 2025 against MIA: 55 of 61 snaps, 25 of 32 passes for 309 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 6 yards, 29.0 PPR points.

In 2025, Jalen Hurts played 16 games for PHI and scored 305.1 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB8.

He completed 294 of 454 passes for 3224 yards, 25 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and ran 105 times for 421 yards and 8 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Jalen Hurts, Week 17 of 2025 against BUF: 54 of 54 snaps, 13 of 27 passes for 110 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 5 yards, 8.9 PPR points.

Jalen Hurts, Week 16 of 2025 against WAS: 66 of 70 snaps, 22 of 30 passes for 185 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 7 carries for 40 yards, 19.4 PPR points.

Jalen Hurts, Week 15 of 2025 against LV: 52 of 69 snaps, 12 of 15 passes for 175 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 7 carries for 39 yards, 22.9 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Jalen Hurts scored 24.7 PPR points and Joe Burrow scored 15.2.

The call was right: Jalen Hurts outscored Joe Burrow by 9.6.

Jalen Hurts finished 21.8 points above the 3.0 the props implied.

Jalen Hurts, Week 1 against WAS: 55 of 55 snaps, 14 of 25 passes for 203 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 7 carries for 46 yards, 24.7 PPR points.

Jalen Hurts finished as the week's QB8 in PPR scoring.

Joe Burrow finished 13.9 points above the 1.2 the props implied.

Joe Burrow, Week 1 against TB: 64 of 64 snaps, 25 of 35 passes for 254 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 20 yards, 15.2 PPR points.

Joe Burrow finished as the week's QB20 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Dak Prescott over Joe Burrow.
• Start Joe Burrow over Drake Maye.
• Start Joe Burrow over Jayden Daniels.
• Start Brock Purdy over Jalen Hurts.
• Start Caleb Williams over Jalen Hurts.
• Start Jalen Hurts over Dak Prescott.