Start Justin Herbert or Sam Darnold? Week 5
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Justin Herbert over Sam Darnold
- Market projects
- 16.0
- fantasy pts
- DEN D vs QB
- 18.1
- 12th most to QBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 100%
- Through Week 4
- Market projects
- 15.4
- fantasy pts
- Snap share
- 75%
- Through Week 4
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Our Week 5 call
Start Justin Herbert over Sam Darnold in Week 5.
Market-based projections have Justin Herbert at 16.0 points and Sam Darnold at 15.4, a gap of 0.6. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip.
What the market projects
Player markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Justin Herbert, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.
The market has Justin Herbert at 199.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 25.5 rushing yards, with a 15% chance to score a touchdown (14, 16, 14 and 14 market sources).
Player markets imply 15.5 fantasy points for Sam Darnold, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.
The market has Sam Darnold at 227.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 4.5 rushing yards, with a 10% chance to score a touchdown (15, 16, 13 and 15 market sources).
That puts Justin Herbert 0.6 points ahead of Sam Darnold on the market projections.
Week 5 matchups
Justin Herbert and LAC host DEN on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.
DEN allowed 18.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 4 games, the 12th most in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 245 yards and 1.5 touchdowns a game against DEN, with an interception.
Injury status
Justin Herbert is not on the injury report.
Sam Darnold is not on the injury report.
Usage before Week 5
Through Week 4, Justin Herbert played 100 percent of LAC snaps, dropped back 144 times and threw an average of 8.8 air yards per attempt.
Justin Herbert, Week 1 against ARI: 55 of 55 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 209 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 29 yards.
Justin Herbert, Week 2 against LV: 68 of 68 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 192 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 2 yards.
Justin Herbert, Week 3 against BUF: 69 of 69 snaps, 20 of 34 passes for 226 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 17 yards.
Justin Herbert, Week 4 against SEA: 71 of 71 snaps, 19 of 31 passes for 189 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 6 carries for 40 yards.
Through Week 4, Sam Darnold played 75 percent of SEA snaps, dropped back 75 times and threw an average of 6.8 air yards per attempt.
Sam Darnold, Week 1 against NE: 5 of 50 snaps, 1 of 2 passes for 13 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
Sam Darnold, Week 3 against WAS: 67 of 67 snaps, 31 of 45 passes for 379 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 1 carry for 5 yards.
Sam Darnold, Week 4 against LAC: 60 of 60 snaps, 13 of 22 passes for 168 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 8 yards.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.
He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.
He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
In 2025, Sam Darnold played 17 games for SEA and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.
He completed 323 of 477 passes for 4048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran 35 times for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.
He was on the field for 96 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Their other Week 5 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
QB17 · LAC · bye 7
2026 vs pass yds line 1-3
- Overall rank
- 102
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 6
Ranked behind
QB22 · SEA · bye 11
2025 vs pass yds line 9-8
- Overall rank
- 110
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 6
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 5, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board8
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersboth in tier 6
- Board size222 draftable players
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