Justin Herbert or Sam Darnold: who should I start in Week 5?

What the player markets price

The player markets price Justin Herbert at 16.1 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 15 market sources. That is the 33rd highest figure of the 183 players the market prices.

The player markets price Sam Darnold at 15.5 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 16 market sources. That is the 40th highest figure of the 183 players the market prices.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Justin Herbert: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 101st overall on the rest of his evidence.

By format he goes standard: ADP 23; 2QB: ADP 13.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Sam Darnold: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 113th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 27.

This season through Week 4

Through Week 4, Justin Herbert has been on the field for 100 percent of LAC snaps, dropped back 144 times and thrown 8.8 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 30 of 144 dropbacks and scrambled 13 times.

In Week 2 against LV he completed 15 of 27 passes for 192 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions and ran 3 times for 2 yards.

In Week 3 against BUF he completed 20 of 34 passes for 226 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 4 times for 17 yards.

In Week 4 against SEA he completed 19 of 31 passes for 189 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions and ran 6 times for 40 yards.

Through Week 4, Sam Darnold has been on the field for 75 percent of SEA snaps, dropped back 75 times and thrown 6.8 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 14 of 75 dropbacks and scrambled 2 times.

In Week 1 against NE he completed 1 of 2 passes for 13 yards and threw 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

In Week 3 against WAS he completed 31 of 45 passes for 379 yards, threw 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and ran 1 time for 5 yards.

In Week 4 against LAC he completed 13 of 22 passes for 168 yards, threw 2 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 1 time for 8 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Justin Herbert played 16 games and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.

He threw for 3727 yards on 512 attempts with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.

That came to 32.0 attempts a game at 7.3 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Sam Darnold played 17 games and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.

He threw for 4048 yards on 477 attempts with 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.

That came to 28.1 attempts a game at 8.5 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 96 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Sam Darnold was available for 1 game more.

Head to head

In 2025 Justin Herbert scored 18.7 PPR points a game and Sam Darnold 14.7, 4.1 a game between them.

Justin Herbert finished QB10 that year and Sam Darnold QB13.

Justin Herbert had 35 more pass attempts than Sam Darnold, 512 to 477.

Sam Darnold had 321 more passing yards than Justin Herbert, 4048 to 3727.

This season Justin Herbert holds the bigger snap share, 100 percent against 75 percent.

This season Justin Herbert holds the bigger target share, 1 percent against 0 percent.

Byes and availability

Justin Herbert is off in Week 7 and Sam Darnold in Week 11, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.6 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the market price when it does.