Start MarShawn Lloyd or Kenny Gainwell? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Kenny Gainwell over MarShawn Lloyd
Wrong: 2.8 to 3.7
- CIN D vs RB
- 23.1
- 16th most to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 46%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 4%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 2.8
- PPR pts
- Books imply
- 5.8
- fantasy pts
- MIN D vs RB
- 6.6
- fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 44%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 3%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 3.7
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Kenny Gainwell over MarShawn Lloyd in Week 1.
MarShawn Lloyd is priced by the books at 5.8 projected points and Kenny Gainwell is not priced at all, so we are leaning on where drafters take them. Drafters take Kenny Gainwell at ADP 100 and MarShawn Lloyd at 113.
What the books imply
No sportsbook posted a player market for Kenny Gainwell in Week 1.
Player prop markets imply 5.8 fantasy points for MarShawn Lloyd, with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
Week 1 matchups
Kenny Gainwell and TB visit CIN.
CIN allowed 23.1 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 16th most in the league.
Running backs ran for 60 yards and a touchdown against CIN and caught passes for 51 more yards.
MarShawn Lloyd and GB visit MIN on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.
MIN allowed 6.6 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 66 yards and no touchdowns against MIN and caught passes for 0 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Kenny Gainwell has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Kenny Gainwell was not on the injury report when the call was made.
MarShawn Lloyd was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Kenny Gainwell played 17 games for PIT and scored 222.3 PPR points, 13.1 a game, finishing RB16.
He ran 114 times for 537 yards and 5 touchdowns, and caught 73 of 85 targets for 486 yards.
He was on the field for 49 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Kenny Gainwell, Week 18 of 2025 against BAL: 5 carries for 10 yards, 9 targets and 8 catches for 64 yards, 1 touchdown, 21.4 PPR points.
Kenny Gainwell, Week 17 of 2025 against CLE: 45 of 66 snaps, 7 carries for 26 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 12 yards, 6.8 PPR points.
Kenny Gainwell, Week 16 of 2025 against DET: 40 of 74 snaps, 9 carries for 50 yards, 7 targets and 5 catches for 78 yards, 1 touchdown, 23.8 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Kenny Gainwell scored 2.8 PPR points and MarShawn Lloyd scored 3.7.
The call was wrong: MarShawn Lloyd outscored Kenny Gainwell by 0.9.
Kenny Gainwell, Week 1 against CIN: 26 of 57 snaps, 5 carries for 15 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 3 yards, 2.8 PPR points.
Kenny Gainwell finished as the week's RB61 in PPR scoring.
MarShawn Lloyd finished 2.1 points below the 5.8 the props implied.
MarShawn Lloyd, Week 1 against MIN: 30 of 68 snaps, 13 carries for 37 yards, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards, 3.7 PPR points.
MarShawn Lloyd finished as the week's RB52 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
RB16 · GB · bye 11
- Overall rank
- 38
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 4
Ranked behind
RB51 · TB · bye 10
2025 vs catches line 10-7
- Overall rank
- 196
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 11
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board158
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 4 and tier 11
- Board size244 draftable players
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