Start MarShawn Lloyd or Aaron Jones Sr.? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Aaron Jones Sr. over MarShawn Lloyd
Right: 10.0 to 3.7- Books imply
- 2.7
- fantasy pts
- GB D vs RB
- 23.0
- 16th fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 46%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 4%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 10.0
- PPR pts
- MIN D vs RB
- 6.6
- fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 44%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 3%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 3.7
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Aaron Jones Sr. over MarShawn Lloyd in Week 1.
Aaron Jones Sr. is priced by the books at 2.7 projected points. MarShawn Lloyd has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Aaron Jones Sr. at ADP 104 and MarShawn Lloyd at 117. Market coverage on Aaron Jones Sr. is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 2.7 fantasy points for Aaron Jones Sr., with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for MarShawn Lloyd in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Aaron Jones Sr. and MIN host GB on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.
GB allowed 23.0 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 16th fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 99 yards and 2 touchdowns against GB and caught passes for 1 more yards.
MarShawn Lloyd and GB visit MIN.
MIN allowed 6.6 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 66 yards and no touchdowns against MIN and caught passes for 0 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Aaron Jones Sr. has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Aaron Jones Sr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
MarShawn Lloyd was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Aaron Jones Sr. played 12 games for MIN and scored 118.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing RB41.
He ran 132 times for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 28 of 41 targets for 199 yards.
He was on the field for 55 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Aaron Jones Sr., Week 17 of 2025 against DET: 35 of 54 snaps, 18 carries for 53 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 10 yards, 1 touchdown, 15.3 PPR points.
Aaron Jones Sr., Week 16 of 2025 against NYG: 39 of 61 snaps, 21 carries for 85 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 8 yards, 11.3 PPR points.
Aaron Jones Sr., Week 15 of 2025 against DAL: 32 of 55 snaps, 12 carries for 34 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 31 yards, 9.5 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Aaron Jones Sr. scored 10.0 PPR points and MarShawn Lloyd scored 3.7.
The call was right: Aaron Jones Sr. outscored MarShawn Lloyd by 6.3.
Aaron Jones Sr. finished 7.3 points above the 2.7 the props implied.
Aaron Jones Sr., Week 1 against GB: 30 of 65 snaps, 12 carries for 40 yards, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards, 1 touchdown, 10.0 PPR points.
Aaron Jones Sr. finished as the week's RB26 in PPR scoring.
MarShawn Lloyd, Week 1 against MIN: 30 of 68 snaps, 13 carries for 37 yards, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards, 3.7 PPR points.
MarShawn Lloyd finished as the week's RB52 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
RB16 · GB · bye 11
- Overall rank
- 38
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 4
Ranked behind
RB23 · MIN · bye 6
2025 vs rush yds line 4-8
- Overall rank
- 50
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 4
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board12
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersboth in tier 4
- Board size244 draftable players
Drafting soon? Use the free live draft assistant
It reranks the board after every pick and shows who is falling past ADP at your slot. No sign in, nothing to install.
Open the draft assistant