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Trade Dalton Kincaid for Josh Downs? Close to even, 31 to 37.

Close to even. On rest-of-season value Dalton Kincaid is 31 and Josh Downs is 37, a 6 point edge to Downs that sits inside the 8 points these values cannot separate. Take the one your lineup is short of. Kincaid rates 12.3 market points a game with 11 games left, Downs 12.5 with 11. On usage, Kincaid has drawn 17 percent of BUF targets; Downs has drawn 23 percent of IND targets. Kincaid is at LV in Week 6 (9th most points allowed to TEs); Downs hosts TEN in Week 6 (14th most points allowed to WRs). Neither carries an injury designation this week.

The verdict, Week 5

Close to even.

Dalton Kincaid 3137 Josh Downs

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Dalton Kincaid

TE5BUF

31

value, #52

Pts/game
12.3
Games left
11
Bye
7
Dalton Kincaid weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5
12.312.311.7

Josh Downs

WR18IND

37

value, #42

Pts/game
12.5
Games left
11
Bye
13
Josh Downs weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5
11.414.212.5

Where the values come from

Kincaid is the 5th tight end on the chart and 52nd overall. His 12.3 a game is 2.8 above the replacement tight end's 9.5, over 11 games left with his bye in Week 7, which is how he comes to 31.

Downs is the 18th receiver on the chart and 42nd overall. His 12.5 a game is 3.4 above the replacement receiver's 9.1, over 11 games left with his bye in Week 13, which is how he comes to 37.

The weekly market prices

The market priced Dalton Kincaid at 12.3 in Week 3, 12.3 in Week 4 and 11.7 in Week 5, a median of 12.3 points a game, down 0.5 from his first frozen week to his latest.

The market priced Josh Downs at 11.4 in Week 3, 14.2 in Week 4 and 12.5 in Week 5, a median of 12.5 points a game, up 1.1 from his first frozen week to his latest.

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Points so far against the price

Dalton Kincaid has scored 46.0 PPR points in 4 games, 11.5 a game, 0.8 a game less than the 12.3 the market prices him at from here.

Last season he finished TE20 with 126.1 PPR points in 12 games, 10.5 a game.

Week 1 vs HOU: 18.0 points (TE5 that week), 5 of 6 targets for 130 yards, 72 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs DET: 22.5 points (TE3 that week), 7 of 8 targets for 95 yards, 1 touchdown, 66 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs LAC: 3.8 points (TE37 that week), 2 of 3 targets for 38 yards, 67 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs NE: 1.7 points (TE52 that week), 1 of 2 targets for 7 yards, 59 percent of snaps.

Josh Downs has scored 44.9 PPR points in 5 games, 9.0 a game, 3.5 a game less than the 12.5 the market prices him at from here.

Last season he finished WR44 with 136.4 PPR points in 16 games, 8.5 a game.

Week 1 vs BAL: 5.7 points (WR65 that week), 2 of 4 targets for 37 yards, 89 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs KC: 14.2 points (WR20 that week), 7 of 9 targets for 72 yards, 83 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs HOU: 12.7 points (WR30 that week), 5 of 11 targets for 77 yards, 68 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs WAS: 4.6 points (WR77 that week), 3 of 4 targets for 16 yards, 77 percent of snaps.

Week 5 vs PIT: 7.7 points (WR40 that week), 3 of 6 targets for 47 yards.

Usage a game this season

Through Week 4, Dalton Kincaid has averaged 4.8 targets and 3.8 catches for 68 yards a game on 66 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 1 time inside the 20, 3 percent of his team's chances there, and has scored 1 touchdown in 4 games.

In Week 4 against NE he had 2 targets on 59 percent of the snaps.

Through Week 4, Josh Downs has averaged 7.0 targets and 4.3 catches for 51 yards a game on 79 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 4 times inside the 20, 11 percent of his team's chances there, and has not scored in 4 games.

In Week 4 against WAS he had 4 targets on 77 percent of the snaps.

Schedule and next matchup

A trade made now buys Week 6 through Week 17. Dalton Kincaid has 11 games in it with his bye in Week 7; Josh Downs has 11 games with his bye in Week 13.

LV, Kincaid's Week 6 opponent, has allowed 17.6 PPR points a game to TEs this season over 4 games, the 9th most to TEs of 32.

TEN, Downs's Week 6 opponent, has allowed 34.1 PPR points a game to WRs this season over 4 games, the 14th most to WRs of 32.

Other trades for Dalton Kincaid and Josh Downs

The full Week 5 trade value chart

Common questions

  • Should I trade Dalton Kincaid for Josh Downs?

    It is close to even: Dalton Kincaid is 31 and Josh Downs is 37 on rest-of-season value, inside the 8 points the values cannot separate. Take the one who starts for you.

  • Who has more rest-of-season value, Dalton Kincaid or Josh Downs?

    Josh Downs, 37 to 31. He rates 12.5 market points a game over 11 games left, against 12.3 over 11 for Dalton Kincaid, each measured above a replacement starter at his own position.

  • How are these trade values calculated?

    Each player's points per game is the median of the market-based PPR points we froze before each week's first kickoff, Weeks 3, 4, 5. A replacement starter's rate is subtracted and the rest is multiplied by his games from Week 6 to Week 17, bye taken out. No expert opinion is involved.

By the Parlae deskValues updated Oct 12, 2026 at 9:06 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number