C.J. Stroud or Jake Ferguson: who to draft first

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price C.J. Stroud at 15.4 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 18 books. That is the 33rd highest figure of the 182 players the books price.

The player markets price Jake Ferguson at 8.0 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 17 books. That is the 126th highest figure of the 182 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on C.J. Stroud: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 113th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 76.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Jake Ferguson: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 114th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 147.

This season through Week 1

Through Week 1, C.J. Stroud has been on the field for 100 percent of HOU snaps, dropped back 42 times and thrown 8.5 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 9 of 42 dropbacks and scrambled 1 time.

In Week 1 against BUF he completed 26 of 38 passes for 274 yards, threw 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 2 times for 15 yards.

Through Week 1, Jake Ferguson has been on the field for 76 percent of DAL snaps, drawn 7 percent of the targets and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 8 third down targets, had 1 of its 5 chances inside the five and seen 1 of its 5 two minute targets.

His 2 targets have averaged 3.0 air yards.

In Week 1 against NYG he caught 2 of 2 targets for 6 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 C.J. Stroud played 14 games and scored 216.5 PPR points, 15.5 a game, finishing QB21.

He threw for 3041 yards on 423 attempts with 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran for 209 yards and 1 touchdown.

That came to 30.2 attempts a game at 7.2 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Jake Ferguson played 17 games and scored 188.1 PPR points, 11.1 a game, finishing TE5.

He caught 82 of 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 23 red zone targets.

That came to 6.0 targets a game, a 80 percent catch rate and 7.3 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 67 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Jake Ferguson was available for 3 games more.

Side by side

In 2025 C.J. Stroud scored 15.5 PPR points a game and Jake Ferguson 11.1, 4.4 a game between them.

C.J. Stroud finished QB21 and Jake Ferguson TE5, which are two different ladders.

C.J. Stroud is a quarterback and Jake Ferguson a tight end, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

C.J. Stroud is off in Week 8 and Jake Ferguson in Week 14, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

7.5 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.