Ace Bailey vs T.J. McConnell: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Ace Bailey in both formats: 24.6 fantasy points a game to 22.1 in points leagues, and 168th against 169th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #142
- 24.6 FP/G, slot 12.10, $3
- 9-cat leagues
- #168
- -3.0 z, slot 14.12
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #179
- 22.1 FP/G, slot 15.11
- 9-cat leagues
- #169
- -3.0 z, slot 15.01
Game-time decision (Undisclosed)
The call
Points leagues: draft Ace Bailey. 24.6 fantasy points per game against 22.1, 142nd on our board to 179th.
9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey again, -3.0 in summed z-scores against -3.0 (168th to 169th).
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (PTS, REB, BLK and 3PM) and T.J. McConnell in 5 (AST, STL, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, T.J. McConnell produces more: 46.3 fantasy points to 32.1, on 17.2 minutes a night against 27.6. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), T.J. McConnell 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 73.8 projected fantasy points to 66.3 for T.J. McConnell.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | T.J. McConnell |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 24.6 | 22.1 |
| Minutes | 27.6 | 17.2 |
| PointsPTS | 13.8 | 9.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.2 | 2.2 |
| AssistsAST | 1.8 | 5.1 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 44.3% | 53.8% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 86.2% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 56 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | T.J. McConnell |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 32.1 | 46.3 |
| Points | 18.0 | 19.6 |
| Rebounds | 5.5 | 4.6 |
| Assists | 2.4 | 10.7 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Blocks | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 2.4 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | T.J. McConnell |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -1.3 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | -1.6 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | +0.7 |
| StealsSTL | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.0 | -1.1 |
| Threes3PM | +0.3 | -1.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.9 | +0.7 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | +0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| Total | -3.0 | -3.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, rebounds, blocks and threes flips the 9-cat answer to T.J. McConnell.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | T.J. McConnell |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.6 (#198) | -1.8 (#143) |
| REB | -2.4 (#149) | -1.5 (#115) |
| AST | -2.2 (#151) | -3.8 (#234) |
| STL | -2.6 (#168) | -3.0 (#186) |
| BLK | -3.2 (#180) | -2.1 (#135) |
| 3PM | -3.3 (#196) | -1.7 (#121) |
| FG% | -2.3 (#130) | -4.1 (#203) |
| FT% | -2.9 (#168) | -3.1 (#176) |
| TO | -3.6 (#161) | -4.1 (#173) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- T.J. McConnell: 3 games (Wed @NOP, Fri DAL, Sun @BKN), listed GTD.
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 31.1 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 24.6 on the board.
- T.J. McConnell: 24.5 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 22.1 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Ace Bailey or T.J. McConnell in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Ace Bailey. 24.6 fantasy points per game against 22.1, 142nd on our board to 179th. 9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey again, -3.0 in summed z-scores against -3.0 (168th to 169th).
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or T.J. McConnell?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (PTS, REB, BLK and 3PM) and T.J. McConnell in 5 (AST, STL, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ace Bailey or T.J. McConnell?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), T.J. McConnell 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 73.8 projected fantasy points to 66.3 for T.J. McConnell.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number