Ace Bailey vs Daniel Gafford: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Ace Bailey in points leagues (24.6 fantasy points a game to 24.3) and Daniel Gafford in 9-cat leagues (121st against 168th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #142
- 24.6 FP/G, slot 12.10, $3
- 9-cat leagues
- #168
- -3.0 z, slot 14.12
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #144
- 24.3 FP/G, slot 12.12, $3
- 9-cat leagues
- #121
- -1.9 z, slot 11.01, $5
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: draft Ace Bailey. 24.6 fantasy points per game against 24.3, 142nd on our board to 144th.
9-cat leagues: Daniel Gafford instead, -1.9 in summed z-scores against -3.0 (121st to 168th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Daniel Gafford in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Daniel Gafford produces more: 40.2 fantasy points to 32.1, on 21.7 minutes a night against 27.6. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Daniel Gafford 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 73.8 projected fantasy points to 72.8 for Daniel Gafford.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Daniel Gafford |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 24.6 | 24.3 |
| Minutes | 27.6 | 21.7 |
| PointsPTS | 13.8 | 9.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.2 | 6.9 |
| AssistsAST | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 44.3% | 65.5% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 68.3% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 55 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Daniel Gafford |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 32.1 | 40.2 |
| Points | 18.0 | 15.8 |
| Rebounds | 5.5 | 11.4 |
| Assists | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Blocks | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Daniel Gafford |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -1.3 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | +0.5 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -1.3 |
| StealsSTL | -0.5 | -0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.0 | +1.2 |
| Threes3PM | +0.3 | -1.7 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.9 | +1.6 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | -1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| Total | -3.0 | -1.9 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Ace Bailey.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Daniel Gafford |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.6 (#198) | -0.6 (#89) |
| REB | -2.4 (#149) | -2.7 (#174) |
| AST | -2.2 (#151) | -0.6 (#74) |
| STL | -2.6 (#168) | -1.2 (#108) |
| BLK | -3.2 (#180) | -3.4 (#197) |
| 3PM | -3.3 (#196) | -0.1 (#65) |
| FG% | -2.3 (#130) | -4.2 (#212) |
| FT% | -2.9 (#168) | -0.8 (#86) |
| TO | -3.6 (#161) | -3.0 (#139) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Daniel Gafford: 3 games (Wed @HOU, Fri @IND, Sat SAS), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 31.1 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 24.6 on the board.
- Daniel Gafford: 31.4 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 24.3 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Ace Bailey or Daniel Gafford in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Ace Bailey. 24.6 fantasy points per game against 24.3, 142nd on our board to 144th. 9-cat leagues: Daniel Gafford instead, -1.9 in summed z-scores against -3.0 (121st to 168th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Daniel Gafford?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Daniel Gafford in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ace Bailey or Daniel Gafford?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Daniel Gafford 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 73.8 projected fantasy points to 72.8 for Daniel Gafford.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number