Alex Sarr vs Chet Holmgren: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Chet Holmgren in both formats: 36.3 fantasy points a game to 35.9 in points leagues, and 18th against 45th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #44
- 35.9 FP/G, slot 4.08, $20
- 9-cat leagues
- #45
- +0.7 z, slot 4.09, $19
- Points leagues
- #43
- 36.3 FP/G, slot 4.07, $20
- 9-cat leagues
- #18
- +3.1 z, slot 2.06, $32
Game-time decision (Quadriceps)
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: draft Chet Holmgren. 36.3 fantasy points per game against 35.9, 43rd on our board to 44th.
9-cat leagues: Chet Holmgren again, +3.1 in summed z-scores against +0.7 (18th to 45th).
Category by category, Alex Sarr is ahead in 3 (AST, STL and BLK) and Chet Holmgren in 6 (PTS, REB, 3PM, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Alex Sarr produces more: 47.6 fantasy points to 45.2, on 27.2 minutes a night against 28.9. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Alex Sarr plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Chet Holmgren 3. For that week alone, start Chet Holmgren: 109.0 projected fantasy points to 107.8 for Alex Sarr.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Alex Sarr | Chet Holmgren |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 35.9 | 36.3 |
| Minutes | 27.2 | 28.9 |
| PointsPTS | 16.3 | 17.1 |
| ReboundsREB | 7.4 | 8.9 |
| AssistsAST | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Threes3PM | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 48.2% | 55.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 69.2% | 79.2% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 48 | 69 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Alex Sarr | Chet Holmgren |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 47.6 | 45.2 |
| Points | 21.6 | 21.3 |
| Rebounds | 9.8 | 11.1 |
| Assists | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Threes | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Turnovers | 2.3 | 1.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Alex Sarr | Chet Holmgren |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.1 | +0.1 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.7 | +1.4 |
| AssistsAST | -0.5 | -1.0 |
| StealsSTL | -0.6 | -1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | +2.7 | +2.5 |
| Threes3PM | -0.6 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.1 | +1.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -1.0 | -0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.2 | +0.4 |
| Total | +0.7 | +3.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Chet Holmgren stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Alex Sarr | Chet Holmgren |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +0.7 (#39) | +2.9 (#9) |
| REB | -0.2 (#63) | +1.5 (#32) |
| AST | +1.2 (#33) | +4.1 (#7) |
| STL | +1.2 (#31) | +4.1 (#9) |
| BLK | -2.2 (#143) | +0.4 (#54) |
| 3PM | +1.3 (#34) | +3.4 (#12) |
| FG% | +0.4 (#54) | +1.6 (#34) |
| FT% | +1.7 (#28) | +3.2 (#13) |
| TO | +0.4 (#55) | +2.5 (#27) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Alex Sarr: 3 games (Wed MIL, Fri TOR, Sat @CHI), 1 back-to-back.
- Chet Holmgren: 3 games (Tue @SAS, Thu DEN, Sun LAC), listed GTD.
Recent games
- Alex Sarr: 27.3 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 35.9 on the board.
- Chet Holmgren: 35.1 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 36.3 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Alex Sarr or Chet Holmgren in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Chet Holmgren. 36.3 fantasy points per game against 35.9, 43rd on our board to 44th. 9-cat leagues: Chet Holmgren again, +3.1 in summed z-scores against +0.7 (18th to 45th).
Who wins more categories, Alex Sarr or Chet Holmgren?
Category by category, Alex Sarr is ahead in 3 (AST, STL and BLK) and Chet Holmgren in 6 (PTS, REB, 3PM, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Alex Sarr or Chet Holmgren?
Alex Sarr plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Chet Holmgren 3. For that week alone, start Chet Holmgren: 109.0 projected fantasy points to 107.8 for Alex Sarr.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number