Chet Holmgren vs Jalen Johnson: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Jalen Johnson in both formats: 48.3 fantasy points a game to 36.3 in points leagues, and 17th against 18th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #43
- 36.3 FP/G, slot 4.07, $20
- 9-cat leagues
- #18
- +3.1 z, slot 2.06, $32
Game-time decision (Quadriceps)
- Points leagues
- #8
- 48.3 FP/G, slot 1.08, $38
- 9-cat leagues
- #17
- +3.1 z, slot 2.05, $32
Day to day (Rest)
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: draft Jalen Johnson. 48.3 fantasy points per game against 36.3, 8th on our board to 43rd.
9-cat leagues: Jalen Johnson again, +3.1 in summed z-scores against +3.1 (17th to 18th).
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 4 (BLK, FG%, FT% and TO) and Jalen Johnson in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, STL and 3PM).
Per 36 minutes, Jalen Johnson produces more: 49.4 fantasy points to 45.2, on 35.2 minutes a night against 28.9. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jalen Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Jalen Johnson: 144.8 projected fantasy points to 109.0 for Chet Holmgren.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Chet Holmgren | Jalen Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 36.3 | 48.3 |
| Minutes | 28.9 | 35.2 |
| PointsPTS | 17.1 | 22.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 8.9 | 10.3 |
| AssistsAST | 1.7 | 7.9 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Threes3PM | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Field goal %FG% | 55.7% | 48.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 79.2% | 78.8% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 3.4 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 69 | 72 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Chet Holmgren | Jalen Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 45.2 | 49.4 |
| Points | 21.3 | 23.0 |
| Rebounds | 11.1 | 10.5 |
| Assists | 2.1 | 8.0 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Blocks | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| Threes | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 3.5 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Chet Holmgren | Jalen Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.1 | +1.0 |
| ReboundsREB | +1.4 | +2.0 |
| AssistsAST | -1.0 | +2.0 |
| StealsSTL | -1.1 | +0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | +2.5 | -0.5 |
| Threes3PM | -0.4 | +0.0 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.3 | +0.0 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.4 | -1.9 |
| Total | +3.1 | +3.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, rebounds, assists, steals and threes flips the 9-cat answer to Chet Holmgren.
| Punt | Chet Holmgren | Jalen Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +2.9 (#9) | +2.0 (#18) |
| REB | +1.5 (#32) | +1.0 (#37) |
| AST | +4.1 (#7) | +0.9 (#37) |
| STL | +4.1 (#9) | +2.5 (#18) |
| BLK | +0.4 (#54) | +3.5 (#14) |
| 3PM | +3.4 (#12) | +2.9 (#14) |
| FG% | +1.6 (#34) | +2.8 (#21) |
| FT% | +3.2 (#13) | +3.2 (#12) |
| TO | +2.5 (#27) | +5.1 (#10) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Chet Holmgren: 3 games (Tue @SAS, Thu DEN, Sun LAC), listed GTD.
- Jalen Johnson: 3 games (Wed @ORL, Fri @CHA, Sat HOU), 1 back-to-back, listed DTD.
Recent games
- Chet Holmgren: 35.1 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 36.3 on the board.
- Jalen Johnson: 39.7 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 48.3 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Chet Holmgren or Jalen Johnson in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Jalen Johnson. 48.3 fantasy points per game against 36.3, 8th on our board to 43rd. 9-cat leagues: Jalen Johnson again, +3.1 in summed z-scores against +3.1 (17th to 18th).
Who wins more categories, Chet Holmgren or Jalen Johnson?
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 4 (BLK, FG%, FT% and TO) and Jalen Johnson in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, STL and 3PM).
Who should I start in Week 1, Chet Holmgren or Jalen Johnson?
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jalen Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Jalen Johnson: 144.8 projected fantasy points to 109.0 for Chet Holmgren.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number