Jalen Smith vs Keldon Johnson: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Keldon Johnson in points leagues (22.9 fantasy points a game to 22.8) and Jalen Smith in 9-cat leagues (159th against 172nd). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #164
- 22.8 FP/G, slot 14.08
- 9-cat leagues
- #159
- -2.7 z, slot 14.03
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #163
- 22.9 FP/G, slot 14.07
- 9-cat leagues
- #172
- -3.1 z, slot 15.04
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: draft Keldon Johnson. 22.9 fantasy points per game against 22.8, 163rd on our board to 164th.
9-cat leagues: Jalen Smith instead, -2.7 in summed z-scores against -3.1 (159th to 172nd), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Jalen Smith is ahead in 3 (REB, BLK and 3PM) and Keldon Johnson in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Jalen Smith produces more: 39.8 fantasy points to 35.3, on 20.7 minutes a night against 23.3. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Jalen Smith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keldon Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Keldon Johnson: 68.7 projected fantasy points to 68.5 for Jalen Smith.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jalen Smith | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 22.8 | 22.9 |
| Minutes | 20.7 | 23.3 |
| PointsPTS | 10.2 | 13.2 |
| ReboundsREB | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| AssistsAST | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Field goal %FG% | 48.3% | 51.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 74.2% | 79.4% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 53 | 82 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jalen Smith | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 39.8 | 35.3 |
| Points | 17.8 | 20.4 |
| Rebounds | 11.7 | 8.3 |
| Assists | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Blocks | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 1.3 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Jalen Smith | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.1 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.4 | -0.2 |
| AssistsAST | -1.2 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | -1.6 | -1.3 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.2 | -1.1 |
| Threes3PM | -0.1 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.1 | +0.5 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.3 | -0.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.1 | +1.3 |
| Total | -2.7 | -3.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds and blocks flips the 9-cat answer to Keldon Johnson.
| Punt | Jalen Smith | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.6 (#136) | -2.5 (#191) |
| REB | -3.2 (#206) | -3.0 (#194) |
| AST | -1.4 (#126) | -2.0 (#145) |
| STL | -1.2 (#102) | -1.9 (#134) |
| BLK | -3.1 (#179) | -2.1 (#139) |
| 3PM | -2.6 (#160) | -2.7 (#173) |
| FG% | -2.9 (#154) | -3.9 (#196) |
| FT% | -2.4 (#150) | -3.1 (#174) |
| TO | -4.0 (#171) | -4.6 (#192) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Jalen Smith: 3 games (Wed @TOR, Fri @MIL, Sat WAS), 1 back-to-back.
- Keldon Johnson: 3 games (Tue OKC, Fri HOU, Sat @DAL), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Jalen Smith: 21.8 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 22.8 on the board.
- Keldon Johnson: 24.7 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 22.9 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Jalen Smith or Keldon Johnson in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Keldon Johnson. 22.9 fantasy points per game against 22.8, 163rd on our board to 164th. 9-cat leagues: Jalen Smith instead, -2.7 in summed z-scores against -3.1 (159th to 172nd), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Jalen Smith or Keldon Johnson?
Category by category, Jalen Smith is ahead in 3 (REB, BLK and 3PM) and Keldon Johnson in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Jalen Smith or Keldon Johnson?
Jalen Smith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keldon Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Keldon Johnson: 68.7 projected fantasy points to 68.5 for Jalen Smith.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number