Keldon Johnson vs Paul Reed: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Keldon Johnson in both formats: 22.9 fantasy points a game to 19.5 in points leagues, and 172nd against 173rd in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #163
- 22.9 FP/G, slot 14.07
- 9-cat leagues
- #172
- -3.1 z, slot 15.04
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #213
- 19.5 FP/G, slot 18.09
- 9-cat leagues
- #173
- -3.1 z, slot 15.05
The call
Points leagues: draft Keldon Johnson. 22.9 fantasy points per game against 19.5, 163rd on our board to 213th.
9-cat leagues: Keldon Johnson again, -3.1 in summed z-scores against -3.1 (172nd to 173rd).
Category by category, Keldon Johnson is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, 3PM and FT%) and Paul Reed in 3 (STL, BLK and FG%).
Per 36 minutes, Paul Reed produces more: 50.7 fantasy points to 35.3, on 13.9 minutes a night against 23.3. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Keldon Johnson plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paul Reed 3. For that week alone, start Keldon Johnson: 68.7 projected fantasy points to 58.6 for Paul Reed.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Keldon Johnson | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 22.9 | 19.5 |
| Minutes | 23.3 | 13.9 |
| PointsPTS | 13.2 | 7.8 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.4 | 4.5 |
| AssistsAST | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| Threes3PM | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| Field goal %FG% | 51.9% | 61.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 79.4% | 66.4% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 82 | 65 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Keldon Johnson | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 35.3 | 50.7 |
| Points | 20.4 | 20.1 |
| Rebounds | 8.3 | 11.7 |
| Assists | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| Steals | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Blocks | 0.2 | 2.4 |
| Threes | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| Turnovers | 1.3 | 2.3 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Keldon Johnson | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.6 | -1.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.2 | -0.6 |
| AssistsAST | -1.1 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | -1.3 | -0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | -1.1 | +0.5 |
| Threes3PM | -0.4 | -1.5 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +0.5 | +1.1 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.0 | -0.7 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.3 | +1.2 |
| Total | -3.1 | -3.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, rebounds, assists, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Paul Reed.
| Punt | Keldon Johnson | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.5 (#191) | -1.6 (#133) |
| REB | -3.0 (#194) | -2.8 (#179) |
| AST | -2.0 (#145) | -1.9 (#142) |
| STL | -1.9 (#134) | -2.8 (#173) |
| BLK | -2.1 (#139) | -3.9 (#225) |
| 3PM | -2.7 (#173) | -1.6 (#114) |
| FG% | -3.9 (#196) | -4.9 (#249) |
| FT% | -3.1 (#174) | -2.4 (#149) |
| TO | -4.6 (#192) | -4.6 (#193) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Keldon Johnson: 3 games (Tue OKC, Fri HOU, Sat @DAL), 1 back-to-back.
- Paul Reed: 3 games (Tue BOS, Fri @MIA, Sun @PHI).
Recent games
- Keldon Johnson: 24.7 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 22.9 on the board.
- Paul Reed: 26.6 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 19.5 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Keldon Johnson or Paul Reed in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Keldon Johnson. 22.9 fantasy points per game against 19.5, 163rd on our board to 213th. 9-cat leagues: Keldon Johnson again, -3.1 in summed z-scores against -3.1 (172nd to 173rd).
Who wins more categories, Keldon Johnson or Paul Reed?
Category by category, Keldon Johnson is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, 3PM and FT%) and Paul Reed in 3 (STL, BLK and FG%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Keldon Johnson or Paul Reed?
Keldon Johnson plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paul Reed 3. For that week alone, start Keldon Johnson: 68.7 projected fantasy points to 58.6 for Paul Reed.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number