Start Aaron Jones Sr. or J.K. Dobbins? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start J.K. Dobbins over Aaron Jones Sr. in Week 1.

J.K. Dobbins is priced by the books at 7.6 projected points. Aaron Jones Sr. has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take J.K. Dobbins at ADP 82 and Aaron Jones Sr. at 91. Market coverage on J.K. Dobbins is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 7.6 fantasy points for J.K. Dobbins, with 70 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for Aaron Jones Sr. in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

J.K. Dobbins and DEN visit KC on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

KC allowed 11.7 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 7th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 54 yards and no touchdowns against KC and caught passes for 23 more yards.

Aaron Jones Sr. and MIN host GB.

GB allowed 23.0 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 16th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 99 yards and 2 touchdowns against GB and caught passes for 1 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Aaron Jones Sr. has the softer matchup.

Injury status

J.K. Dobbins was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Aaron Jones Sr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, J.K. Dobbins played 10 games for DEN and scored 115.9 PPR points, 11.6 a game, finishing RB43.

He ran 153 times for 772 yards and 4 touchdowns, and caught 11 of 14 targets for 37 yards.

He was on the field for 51 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Aaron Jones Sr. played 12 games for MIN and scored 118.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing RB41.

He ran 132 times for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 28 of 41 targets for 199 yards.

He was on the field for 55 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 17 of 2025 against DET: 35 of 54 snaps, 18 carries for 53 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 10 yards, 1 touchdown, 15.3 PPR points.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 16 of 2025 against NYG: 39 of 61 snaps, 21 carries for 85 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 8 yards, 11.3 PPR points.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 15 of 2025 against DAL: 32 of 55 snaps, 12 carries for 34 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 31 yards, 9.5 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

J.K. Dobbins scored 3.6 PPR points and Aaron Jones Sr. scored 10.0.

The call was wrong: Aaron Jones Sr. outscored J.K. Dobbins by 6.4.

J.K. Dobbins finished 4.0 points below the 7.6 the props implied.

J.K. Dobbins, Week 1 against KC: 22 of 51 snaps, 8 carries for 36 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 3.6 PPR points.

J.K. Dobbins finished as the week's RB53 in PPR scoring.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 1 against GB: 30 of 65 snaps, 12 carries for 40 yards, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards, 1 touchdown, 10.0 PPR points.

Aaron Jones Sr. finished as the week's RB26 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start J.K. Dobbins over Aaron Jones Sr..
• Start Chuba Hubbard over J.K. Dobbins.
• Start Jadarian Price over J.K. Dobbins.
• Start Chuba Hubbard over Aaron Jones Sr..
• Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
• Start Jaleel McLaughlin over Aaron Jones Sr..