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Should I start J.K. Dobbins or Aaron Jones Sr. in Week 9?

Updated Nov 3, 3:51 AM ET.

Week 9 verdict

Start J.K. Dobbins over Aaron Jones Sr.

Dobbins projects lower, 9.1 to 9.3, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 90 for Dobbins, 110 for Jones.

Start

RB · DEN · at CAR

Market projects
9.1
recent weeks avg
CAR D vs RB
28.7
2nd most to RBs (2026)
Snap share
41%
Through Week 8
Target share
4%
Through Week 8
Sit

RB · MIN · vs BUF

Market projects
9.3
recent weeks avg
BUF D vs RB
27.3
3rd most to RBs (2026)
Snap share
25%
Through Week 8
Target share
6%
Through Week 8
Start Dobbins or Jones? The full Week 9 breakdown

Start J.K. Dobbins: 42 percent of the snaps and 51 percent of the carries over their last 3 games, against Aaron Jones Sr.'s 25 percent of the snaps and 30 percent of the carries. No market projection is posted on either of them this week, so this is a usage call, and a lower confidence one than a call made on a projection. What follows is what each of them has done.

Should I drop J.K. Dobbins for Aaron Jones Sr.?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Aaron Jones Sr. projects 127 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (14.1 a game over 9 games), J.K. Dobbins 74 (9.2 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts J.K. Dobbins over Aaron Jones Sr. So make the move after his Week 9 game.

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Your next move

More fantasy football tools and rankings, all built from the same board.

Neither man carries a season projection right now, so this is their usage this season and their last full season's numbers, side by side.

RB33 · DEN · bye 10

2026 vs carries line 3-5

Market-based projection
8.3 pts a game Wk 8 price
Overall rank
97

RB40 · MIN · bye 6

2026 vs carries line 5-2

Market-based projection
7.4 pts a game Wk 8 price
Overall rank
129

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The gap

  • Board size297 draftable players

Draft data is not current for these two, so the figures that depend on it are left out. The call above comes from each player's usage.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on J.K. Dobbins, and the board ranks him 97th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Aaron Jones Sr., and the board ranks him 129th overall on the rest of his evidence.

The market-based projections

The market has J.K. Dobbins at 3.6 PPR points a game off 1 market across 5 market sources. That is 30 percent of what a running back's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

The market has Aaron Jones Sr. at 3.1 PPR points a game off 1 market across 1 market source. That is 30 percent of what a running back's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

J.K. Dobbins's projection is not complete, so the two figures are not set against each other here.

This season through Week 8

Through Week 8, J.K. Dobbins has been on the field for 41 percent of DEN snaps, taken 50 percent of the carries, drawn 4 percent of the targets and had 22 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 66 third down targets, had 8 of its 26 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 26 two minute targets.

His 9 targets have come 1.1 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 6 against SEA he carried 17 times for 41 yards, caught 3 of 3 targets for 5 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 7 against ARI he carried 6 times for 23 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 8 against KC he carried 7 times for 13 yards and did not score.

Through Week 8, Aaron Jones Sr. has been on the field for 25 percent of MIN snaps, taken 30 percent of the carries, drawn 6 percent of the targets and had 20 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 17 third down targets, had 0 of its 2 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 2 two minute targets.

His 3 targets have come 0.3 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 7 against IND he carried 8 times for 26 yards, caught 1 of 1 target for 0 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against DET he carried 5 times for 22 yards, caught 2 of 2 targets for 18 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 J.K. Dobbins played 10 games and scored 115.9 PPR points, 11.6 a game, finishing RB43.

He carried 153 times for 772 yards and 4 touchdowns, and caught 11 of 14 targets for 37 more yards.

That came to 15.3 carries a game at 5.0 yards a carry and 1.1 catches a game.

He was on the field for 51 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Aaron Jones Sr. played 12 games and scored 118.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing RB41.

He carried 132 times for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 28 of 41 targets for 199 more yards.

That came to 11.0 carries a game at 4.2 yards a carry and 2.3 catches a game.

He was on the field for 55 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Aaron Jones Sr. was available for 2 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 J.K. Dobbins scored 11.6 PPR points a game and Aaron Jones Sr. 9.9, 1.7 a game between them.

J.K. Dobbins finished RB43 that year and Aaron Jones Sr. RB41.

J.K. Dobbins had 21 more carries than Aaron Jones Sr., 153 to 132.

Aaron Jones Sr. had 17 more catches than J.K. Dobbins, 28 to 11.

This season J.K. Dobbins holds the bigger snap share, 41 percent against 25 percent.

This season J.K. Dobbins holds the bigger share of the carries, 50 percent against 30 percent.

Byes and availability

J.K. Dobbins is off in Week 10 and Aaron Jones Sr. in Week 6, so either can cover the other's bye.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop J.K. Dobbins for Aaron Jones Sr.?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. Aaron Jones Sr. projects 127 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (14.1 a game over 9 games), J.K. Dobbins 74 (9.2 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts J.K. Dobbins over Aaron Jones Sr. So make the move after his Week 9 game.

  • Should I drop Aaron Jones Sr. for J.K. Dobbins?

    No. Keep Aaron Jones Sr.: he projects 127 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (14.1 a game over 9 games), J.K. Dobbins 74 (9.2 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts J.K. Dobbins over Aaron Jones Sr.

Should I drop Aaron Jones Sr.?Should I drop J.K. Dobbins?

Both players in full

Week 9 on the board

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