Start Baker Mayfield or Aaron Rodgers? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Baker Mayfield at 16.9 points and Aaron Rodgers at 16.3, a gap of 0.6. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 16.9 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Baker Mayfield at 216.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 16.5 rushing yards, with a 14% chance to score a touchdown (11, 16, 14 and 14 books).

Player prop markets imply 16.3 fantasy points for Aaron Rodgers, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Aaron Rodgers at 220.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns, with a 6% chance to score a touchdown (16, 16 and 15 books).

That puts Baker Mayfield 0.6 points ahead of Aaron Rodgers on the books.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Aaron Rodgers is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Baker Mayfield played 100 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 76 times and threw an average of 9.1 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Through Week 2, Aaron Rodgers played 98 percent of PIT snaps, dropped back 86 times and threw an average of 7.8 air yards per attempt.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 1 against ATL: 67 of 67 snaps, 24 of 40 passes for 221 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 2 against NE: 67 of 70 snaps, 23 of 39 passes for 187 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 5 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Baker Mayfield, Week 18 of 2025 against CAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 31 yards, 14.2 PPR points.

In 2025, Aaron Rodgers played 16 games for PIT and scored 234.1 PPR points, 14.6 a game, finishing QB18.

He completed 327 of 498 passes for 3322 yards, 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 21 times for 61 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 18 of 2025 against BAL: 31 of 47 passes for 294 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 20 yards, 17.8 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Cam Ward.
• Start C.J. Stroud over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Bo Nix over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Aaron Rodgers over Cam Ward.
• Start Daniel Jones over Aaron Rodgers.