Start Sam Darnold or Aaron Rodgers? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Sam Darnold over Aaron Rodgers in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Sam Darnold at 15.2 points and Aaron Rodgers at 14.6, a gap of 0.5. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 15.2 fantasy points for Sam Darnold, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Sam Darnold at 222.5 passing yards, with a 11% chance to score a touchdown (8 and 10 books).

Player prop markets imply 14.6 fantasy points for Aaron Rodgers, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Aaron Rodgers at 220.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 0.5 rushing yards, with a 6% chance to score a touchdown (16, 16, 6 and 15 books).

That puts Sam Darnold 0.5 points ahead of Aaron Rodgers on the books.

Injury status

Sam Darnold is listed as questionable.

Aaron Rodgers is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 1, Sam Darnold played 10 percent of SEA snaps, dropped back 3 times and threw an average of 7.5 air yards per attempt.

Sam Darnold, Week 1 against NE: 5 of 50 snaps, 1 of 2 passes for 13 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Through Week 2, Aaron Rodgers played 98 percent of PIT snaps, dropped back 86 times and threw an average of 7.8 air yards per attempt.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 1 against ATL: 67 of 67 snaps, 24 of 40 passes for 221 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 2 against NE: 67 of 70 snaps, 23 of 39 passes for 187 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 5 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Sam Darnold played 17 games for SEA and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.

He completed 323 of 477 passes for 4048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran 35 times for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 96 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Sam Darnold, Week 18 of 2025 against SF: 69 of 69 snaps, 20 of 26 passes for 198 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 9 yards, 8.8 PPR points.

Sam Darnold, Week 17 of 2025 against CAR: 66 of 66 snaps, 18 of 27 passes for 147 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 2 yards, 7.1 PPR points.

In 2025, Aaron Rodgers played 16 games for PIT and scored 234.1 PPR points, 14.6 a game, finishing QB18.

He completed 327 of 498 passes for 3322 yards, 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 21 times for 61 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 18 of 2025 against BAL: 31 of 47 passes for 294 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 20 yards, 17.8 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Sam Darnold over Bryce Young.
• Start Sam Darnold over Cam Ward.
• Start Dak Prescott over Sam Darnold.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Bo Nix over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Aaron Rodgers over Cam Ward.