Start Justin Jefferson or A.J. Brown? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start A.J. Brown over Justin Jefferson
Wrong: 5.6 to 31.2
- Books imply
- 14.7
- fantasy pts
- SEA D vs WR
- 21.7
- 6th fewest to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 44%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 13%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 5.6
- PPR pts
- GB D vs WR
- 31.2
- 13th most to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 92%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 39%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 31.2
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start A.J. Brown over Justin Jefferson in Week 1.
A.J. Brown is priced by the books at 14.7 projected points. Justin Jefferson has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take A.J. Brown at ADP 16 and Justin Jefferson at 12.
What the books imply
No sportsbook posted a player market for Justin Jefferson in Week 1.
Player prop markets imply 14.7 fantasy points for A.J. Brown, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
Week 1 matchups
Justin Jefferson and MIN host GB.
GB allowed 31.2 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 13th most in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 92 yards and 2 touchdowns against GB.
A.J. Brown and NE visit SEA on Wednesday at 8:20 PM ET.
SEA allowed 21.7 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 6th fewest in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 97 yards and no touchdowns against SEA.
By points allowed to the position, Justin Jefferson has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Justin Jefferson was not on the injury report when the call was made.
A.J. Brown was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Justin Jefferson played 17 games for MIN and scored 201.5 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR21.
He caught 84 of 141 targets for 1048 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 17 red zone targets and 597 air yards.
He was on the field for 95 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Justin Jefferson, Week 18 of 2025 against GB: 1 carry for 3 yards, 11 targets and 8 catches for 101 yards, 18.4 PPR points.
Justin Jefferson, Week 17 of 2025 against DET: 53 of 54 snaps, 5 targets and 4 catches for 30 yards, 7.0 PPR points.
Justin Jefferson, Week 16 of 2025 against NYG: 58 of 61 snaps, 8 targets and 6 catches for 85 yards, 14.5 PPR points.
In 2025, A.J. Brown played 15 games for PHI and scored 220.3 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing WR11.
He caught 78 of 121 targets for 1003 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets and 735 air yards.
He was on the field for 91 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
A.J. Brown, Week 17 of 2025 against BUF: 48 of 54 snaps, 7 targets and 5 catches for 68 yards, 11.8 PPR points.
A.J. Brown, Week 16 of 2025 against WAS: 61 of 70 snaps, 12 targets and 9 catches for 95 yards, 18.5 PPR points.
A.J. Brown, Week 15 of 2025 against LV: 50 of 69 snaps, 2 targets and 2 catches for 41 yards, 1 touchdown, 12.1 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
A.J. Brown scored 5.6 PPR points and Justin Jefferson scored 31.2.
The call was wrong: Justin Jefferson outscored A.J. Brown by 25.6.
A.J. Brown finished 9.1 points below the 14.7 the props implied.
A.J. Brown, Week 1 against SEA: 31 of 71 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 26 yards, 5.6 PPR points.
A.J. Brown finished as the week's WR66 in PPR scoring.
Justin Jefferson, Week 1 against GB: 60 of 65 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 92 yards, 2 touchdowns, 31.2 PPR points.
Justin Jefferson finished as the week's WR3 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
WR7 · MIN · bye 6
2025 vs rec yds line 6-11
- Overall rank
- 65
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
Ranked behind
WR73 · NE · bye 11
2025 vs rec yds line 6-9
- Overall rank
- 191
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 10
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board126
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 5 and tier 10
- Board size244 draftable players
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