Start Nico Collins or A.J. Brown? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start A.J. Brown over Nico Collins in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project A.J. Brown at 14.7 points and Nico Collins at 2.6, a gap of 12.1. Drafters take A.J. Brown at ADP 16 and Nico Collins at 19.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 14.7 fantasy points for A.J. Brown, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 2.6 fantasy points for Nico Collins, with 33 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

That puts A.J. Brown 12.1 points ahead of Nico Collins on the books.

Week 1 matchups

A.J. Brown and NE visit SEA on Wednesday at 8:20 PM ET.

SEA allowed 21.7 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 6th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 97 yards and no touchdowns against SEA.

Nico Collins and HOU host BUF on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

BUF allowed 40.0 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 8th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 193 yards and a touchdown against BUF.

By points allowed to the position, Nico Collins has the softer matchup.

Injury status

A.J. Brown was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Nico Collins was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, A.J. Brown played 15 games for PHI and scored 220.3 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing WR11.

He caught 78 of 121 targets for 1003 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets and 735 air yards.

He was on the field for 91 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

A.J. Brown, Week 17 of 2025 against BUF: 48 of 54 snaps, 7 targets and 5 catches for 68 yards, 11.8 PPR points.

A.J. Brown, Week 16 of 2025 against WAS: 61 of 70 snaps, 12 targets and 9 catches for 95 yards, 18.5 PPR points.

A.J. Brown, Week 15 of 2025 against LV: 50 of 69 snaps, 2 targets and 2 catches for 41 yards, 1 touchdown, 12.1 PPR points.

In 2025, Nico Collins played 15 games for HOU and scored 226.2 PPR points, 15.1 a game, finishing WR8.

He caught 71 of 120 targets for 1117 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 16 red zone targets and 793 air yards.

He was on the field for 77 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Nico Collins, Week 17 of 2025 against LAC: 44 of 65 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 57 yards, 8.7 PPR points.

Nico Collins, Week 16 of 2025 against LV: 52 of 65 snaps, 9 targets and 4 catches for 59 yards, 9.9 PPR points.

Nico Collins, Week 15 of 2025 against ARI: 49 of 67 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 85 yards, 2 touchdowns, 23.5 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

A.J. Brown scored 5.6 PPR points and Nico Collins scored 21.2.

The call was wrong: Nico Collins outscored A.J. Brown by 15.6.

A.J. Brown finished 9.1 points below the 14.7 the props implied.

A.J. Brown, Week 1 against SEA: 31 of 71 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 26 yards, 5.6 PPR points.

A.J. Brown finished as the week's WR66 in PPR scoring.

Nico Collins finished 18.6 points above the 2.6 the props implied.

Nico Collins, Week 1 against BUF: 57 of 79 snaps, 1 carry for 7 yards, 10 targets and 7 catches for 75 yards, 1 touchdown, 21.2 PPR points.

Nico Collins finished as the week's WR8 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start A.J. Brown over CeeDee Lamb.
• Start A.J. Brown over Chris Olave.
• Start A.J. Brown over Drake London.
• Start Chris Olave over Nico Collins.
• Start Drake London over Nico Collins.
• Start Nico Collins over Garrett Wilson.