Start Joe Burrow or Bo Nix? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Joe Burrow over Bo Nix in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Joe Burrow at 17.3 points and Bo Nix at 16.9, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 17.3 fantasy points for Joe Burrow, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Joe Burrow at 253.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 5.5 rushing yards, with a 12% chance to score a touchdown (14, 16, 11 and 14 books).

Player prop markets imply 16.9 fantasy points for Bo Nix, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Bo Nix at 211.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 16.5 rushing yards, with a 18% chance to score a touchdown (15, 16, 14 and 15 books).

That puts Joe Burrow 0.4 points ahead of Bo Nix on the books.

Injury status

Joe Burrow is not on the injury report.

Bo Nix is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Joe Burrow played 100 percent of CIN snaps, dropped back 73 times and threw an average of 6.0 air yards per attempt.

Joe Burrow, Week 1 against TB: 64 of 64 snaps, 25 of 35 passes for 254 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 21 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 2 against HOU: 60 of 60 snaps, 20 of 31 passes for 207 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Through Week 2, Bo Nix played 100 percent of DEN snaps, dropped back 64 times and threw an average of 6.1 air yards per attempt.

Bo Nix, Week 1 against KC: 51 of 51 snaps, 17 of 28 passes for 131 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 3 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 2 against JAX: 62 of 62 snaps, 22 of 31 passes for 288 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 9 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Joe Burrow played 8 games for CIN and scored 139.5 PPR points, 17.4 a game, finishing QB29.

He completed 173 of 259 passes for 1809 yards, 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran 14 times for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Joe Burrow, Week 18 of 2025 against CLE: 29 of 39 passes for 236 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 17 yards, 22.1 PPR points.

In 2025, Bo Nix played 17 games for DEN and scored 315.8 PPR points, 18.6 a game, finishing QB7.

He completed 388 of 612 passes for 3931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 100 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Bo Nix, Week 18 of 2025 against LAC: 14 of 23 passes for 141 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 49 yards, 10.5 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Bryce Young over Joe Burrow.
• Start Joe Burrow over C.J. Stroud.
• Start Joe Burrow over Dak Prescott.
• Start Bo Nix over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Bryce Young over Bo Nix.