Start Bo Nix or Matthew Stafford? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Bo Nix over Matthew Stafford in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Bo Nix at 16.9 points and Matthew Stafford at 16.0, a gap of 0.9. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 16.9 fantasy points for Bo Nix, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Bo Nix at 211.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 16.5 rushing yards, with a 17% chance to score a touchdown (14, 16, 14 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Matthew Stafford, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Matthew Stafford at 243.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 0.5 rushing yards, with a 4% chance to score a touchdown (14, 16, 8 and 15 books).

That puts Bo Nix 0.9 points ahead of Matthew Stafford on the books.

Injury status

Bo Nix is not on the injury report.

Matthew Stafford is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Bo Nix played 100 percent of DEN snaps, dropped back 64 times and threw an average of 6.1 air yards per attempt.

Bo Nix, Week 1 against KC: 51 of 51 snaps, 17 of 28 passes for 131 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 3 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 2 against JAX: 62 of 62 snaps, 22 of 31 passes for 288 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 9 yards.

Through Week 2, Matthew Stafford played 92 percent of LAR snaps, dropped back 57 times and threw an average of 10.2 air yards per attempt.

Matthew Stafford, Week 1 against SF: 51 of 61 snaps, 15 of 25 passes for 155 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 0 yards.

Matthew Stafford, Week 2 against NYG: 62 of 62 snaps, 22 of 30 passes for 327 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 2 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Bo Nix played 17 games for DEN and scored 315.8 PPR points, 18.6 a game, finishing QB7.

He completed 388 of 612 passes for 3931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 100 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Bo Nix, Week 18 of 2025 against LAC: 14 of 23 passes for 141 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 49 yards, 10.5 PPR points.

In 2025, Matthew Stafford played 17 games for LAR and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.

He completed 388 of 597 passes for 4707 yards, 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Matthew Stafford, Week 18 of 2025 against ARI: 25 of 40 passes for 259 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 3 yards, 26.7 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Bo Nix over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Bryce Young over Bo Nix.
• Start Aaron Rodgers over Matthew Stafford.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Matthew Stafford.
• Start C.J. Stroud over Matthew Stafford.