Start C.J. Stroud or Matthew Stafford? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start C.J. Stroud over Matthew Stafford in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project C.J. Stroud at 16.9 points and Matthew Stafford at 16.0, a gap of 0.9. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 16.9 fantasy points for C.J. Stroud, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have C.J. Stroud at 236.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 9.5 rushing yards, with a 11% chance to score a touchdown (13, 17, 14 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Matthew Stafford, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Matthew Stafford at 243.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 0.5 rushing yards, with a 4% chance to score a touchdown (13, 16, 8 and 15 books).

That puts C.J. Stroud 0.9 points ahead of Matthew Stafford on the books.

Injury status

C.J. Stroud is not on the injury report.

Matthew Stafford is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, C.J. Stroud played 100 percent of HOU snaps, dropped back 102 times and threw an average of 8.8 air yards per attempt.

C.J. Stroud, Week 1 against BUF: 79 of 79 snaps, 26 of 38 passes for 274 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 15 yards.

C.J. Stroud, Week 2 against CIN: 80 of 80 snaps, 30 of 53 passes for 353 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 29 yards.

Through Week 2, Matthew Stafford played 92 percent of LAR snaps, dropped back 57 times and threw an average of 10.2 air yards per attempt.

Matthew Stafford, Week 1 against SF: 51 of 61 snaps, 15 of 25 passes for 155 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 0 yards.

Matthew Stafford, Week 2 against NYG: 62 of 62 snaps, 22 of 30 passes for 327 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 2 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, C.J. Stroud played 14 games for HOU and scored 216.5 PPR points, 15.5 a game, finishing QB21.

He completed 273 of 423 passes for 3041 yards, 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 48 times for 209 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

C.J. Stroud, Week 18 of 2025 against IND: 14 of 23 passes for 169 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 5 yards, 17.3 PPR points.

In 2025, Matthew Stafford played 17 games for LAR and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.

He completed 388 of 597 passes for 4707 yards, 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Matthew Stafford, Week 18 of 2025 against ARI: 25 of 40 passes for 259 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 3 yards, 26.7 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start C.J. Stroud over Baker Mayfield.
• Start C.J. Stroud over Bo Nix.
• Start Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud.
• Start Aaron Rodgers over Matthew Stafford.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Matthew Stafford.
• Start Bo Nix over Matthew Stafford.