Start Matthew Stafford or Aaron Rodgers? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Aaron Rodgers over Matthew Stafford in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Aaron Rodgers at 16.3 points and Matthew Stafford at 16.0, a gap of 0.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 16.3 fantasy points for Aaron Rodgers, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Aaron Rodgers at 220.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns, with a 6% chance to score a touchdown (16, 16 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Matthew Stafford, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Matthew Stafford at 243.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 0.5 rushing yards, with a 4% chance to score a touchdown (12, 16, 8 and 15 books).

That puts Aaron Rodgers 0.2 points ahead of Matthew Stafford on the books.

Injury status

Aaron Rodgers is not on the injury report.

Matthew Stafford is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Aaron Rodgers played 98 percent of PIT snaps, dropped back 86 times and threw an average of 7.8 air yards per attempt.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 1 against ATL: 67 of 67 snaps, 24 of 40 passes for 221 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 2 against NE: 67 of 70 snaps, 23 of 39 passes for 187 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 5 yards.

Through Week 2, Matthew Stafford played 92 percent of LAR snaps, dropped back 57 times and threw an average of 10.2 air yards per attempt.

Matthew Stafford, Week 1 against SF: 51 of 61 snaps, 15 of 25 passes for 155 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 0 yards.

Matthew Stafford, Week 2 against NYG: 62 of 62 snaps, 22 of 30 passes for 327 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 2 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Aaron Rodgers played 16 games for PIT and scored 234.1 PPR points, 14.6 a game, finishing QB18.

He completed 327 of 498 passes for 3322 yards, 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 21 times for 61 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 18 of 2025 against BAL: 31 of 47 passes for 294 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 20 yards, 17.8 PPR points.

In 2025, Matthew Stafford played 17 games for LAR and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.

He completed 388 of 597 passes for 4707 yards, 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Matthew Stafford, Week 18 of 2025 against ARI: 25 of 40 passes for 259 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 3 yards, 26.7 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Bo Nix over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Aaron Rodgers over Cam Ward.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Matthew Stafford.
• Start Bo Nix over Matthew Stafford.
• Start C.J. Stroud over Matthew Stafford.