Start Michael Pittman Jr. or Brian Thomas Jr.? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Michael Pittman Jr. over Brian Thomas Jr.
Right: 8.8 to 7.0- Books imply
- 4.2
- fantasy pts
- ATL D vs WR
- 22.4
- 8th fewest to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 88%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 8%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 8.8
- PPR pts
- CLE D vs WR
- 48.5
- 3rd most to WRs (2026)
- Scored
- 7.0
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Michael Pittman Jr. over Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 1.
Michael Pittman Jr. is priced by the books at 4.2 projected points. Brian Thomas Jr. has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Michael Pittman Jr. at ADP 76 and Brian Thomas Jr. at 77. Market coverage on Michael Pittman Jr. is 40 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 4.2 fantasy points for Michael Pittman Jr., with 40 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Michael Pittman Jr. and PIT host ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
ATL allowed 22.4 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 8th fewest in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 124 yards and no touchdowns against ATL.
Brian Thomas Jr. and JAX host CLE.
CLE allowed 48.5 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 3rd most in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 183 yards and 3 touchdowns against CLE.
By points allowed to the position, Brian Thomas Jr. has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Michael Pittman Jr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Brian Thomas Jr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Michael Pittman Jr. played 17 games for IND and scored 202.4 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR18.
He caught 80 of 111 targets for 784 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets and 525 air yards.
He was on the field for 85 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Michael Pittman Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against HOU: 4 targets and 2 catches for 11 yards, 3.1 PPR points.
Michael Pittman Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against JAX: 49 of 57 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 16 yards, 3.6 PPR points.
Michael Pittman Jr., Week 16 of 2025 against SF: 56 of 60 snaps, 5 targets and 4 catches for 32 yards, 7.2 PPR points.
In 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games for JAX and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.
He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 548 air yards.
He was on the field for 79 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 5 targets and 3 catches for 49 yards, 7.9 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 54 of 69 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 39 yards, 7.9 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 16 of 2025 against DEN: 51 of 70 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards, 3.8 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Michael Pittman Jr. scored 8.8 PPR points and Brian Thomas Jr. scored 7.0.
The call was right: Michael Pittman Jr. outscored Brian Thomas Jr. by 1.8.
Michael Pittman Jr. finished 4.7 points above the 4.2 the props implied.
Michael Pittman Jr., Week 1 against ATL: 59 of 67 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 58 yards, 8.8 PPR points.
Michael Pittman Jr. finished as the week's WR44 in PPR scoring.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 1 against CLE: 20 of 57 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 40 yards, 7.0 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr. finished as the week's WR58 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
WR20 · PIT · bye 9
2025 vs rec yds line 5-12
- Overall rank
- 83
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
Ranked behind
WR28 · JAX · bye 7
2025 vs rec yds line 4-10
- Overall rank
- 95
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board12
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersboth in tier 5
- Board size244 draftable players
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