Start Josh Downs or Carnell Tate? Week 1
Locked at kickoff. Graded after.
Start Carnell Tate over Josh Downs
Right: 7.8 to 5.7
- Books implied
- 3.5
- pre-game
- NYJ D vs WR
- 24.4
- 11th fewest to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 88%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 21%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 7.8
- PPR pts
- BAL D vs WR
- 25.0
- 12th fewest to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 89%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 14%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 5.7
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Carnell Tate over Josh Downs in Week 1.
Carnell Tate is priced by the books at 3.5 projected points. Josh Downs has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Carnell Tate at ADP 82 and Josh Downs at 92. Market coverage on Carnell Tate is 30 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 3.5 fantasy points for Carnell Tate, with 30 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Josh Downs in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Carnell Tate and TEN host NYJ on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
NYJ allowed 24.4 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 11th fewest in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 94 yards and a touchdown against NYJ.
Josh Downs and IND host BAL.
BAL allowed 25.0 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 12th fewest in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 130 yards and no touchdowns against BAL.
By points allowed to the position, Josh Downs has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Carnell Tate was listed as questionable when the call was made.
Josh Downs was listed as questionable when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Josh Downs played 16 games for IND and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.
He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 422 air yards.
He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Josh Downs, Week 18 of 2025 against HOU: 1 carry for -5 yards, 4 targets and 4 catches for 61 yards, 9.6 PPR points.
Josh Downs, Week 17 of 2025 against JAX: 35 of 57 snaps, 5 targets and 2 catches for 34 yards, 5.4 PPR points.
Josh Downs, Week 16 of 2025 against SF: 47 of 60 snaps, 1 carry for 3 yards, 9 targets and 5 catches for 65 yards, 11.8 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Carnell Tate scored 7.8 PPR points and Josh Downs scored 5.7.
The call was right: Carnell Tate outscored Josh Downs by 2.1.
Carnell Tate finished 4.3 points above the 3.5 the props implied.
Carnell Tate, Week 1 against NYJ: 44 of 50 snaps, 6 targets and 4 catches for 38 yards, 7.8 PPR points.
Carnell Tate finished as the week's WR52 in PPR scoring.
Josh Downs, Week 1 against BAL: 48 of 54 snaps, 4 targets and 2 catches for 37 yards, 5.7 PPR points.
Josh Downs finished as the week's WR65 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
WR29 · IND · bye 13
2025 vs anytime td line 4-12
- Overall rank
- 72
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 10
Ranked behind
WR35 · TEN · bye 9
- Overall rank
- 86
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 11
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. This call locked at kickoff and was not edited after. It is on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board14
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 10 and tier 11
- Board size242 draftable players
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