Josh Downs or Carnell Tate: who to draft first

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Josh Downs at 10.1 PPR points a game, built from 4 markets across 15 books. That is the 90th highest figure of the 182 players the books price.

The player markets price Carnell Tate at 9.2 PPR points a game, built from 4 markets across 14 books. That is the 103rd highest figure of the 182 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Josh Downs: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 72nd overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 124.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Carnell Tate: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 85th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 95.

This season through Week 1

Through Week 1, Josh Downs has been on the field for 89 percent of IND snaps, drawn 14 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 2 of the offence's 5 third down targets, had 0 of its 3 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 2 two minute targets.

His 4 targets have averaged 9.0 air yards.

In Week 1 against BAL he caught 2 of 4 targets for 37 yards and did not score.

Through Week 1, Carnell Tate has been on the field for 88 percent of TEN snaps, drawn 21 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 1 of the offence's 8 third down targets and seen 1 of its 2 two minute targets.

His 6 targets have averaged 11.2 air yards.

In Week 1 against NYJ he caught 4 of 6 targets for 38 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Josh Downs played 16 games and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets.

That came to 5.5 targets a game, a 66 percent catch rate and 9.8 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Carnell Tate is a rookie, so there is no NFL season behind him to price him against.

Head to head

This season Josh Downs holds the bigger snap share, 89 percent against 88 percent.

This season Carnell Tate holds the bigger target share, 21 percent against 14 percent.

Byes and availability

Josh Downs is off in Week 13 and Carnell Tate in Week 9, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.9 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.