Start Travis Kelce or Dalton Kincaid? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Travis Kelce over Dalton Kincaid in Week 1.

Travis Kelce is priced by the books at 8.6 projected points. Dalton Kincaid has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Travis Kelce at ADP 127 and Dalton Kincaid at 134. Market coverage on Travis Kelce is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 8.6 fantasy points for Travis Kelce, with 70 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for Dalton Kincaid in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Travis Kelce and KC host DEN on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

DEN allowed 13.5 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 14th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 85 yards and no touchdowns against DEN.

Dalton Kincaid and BUF visit HOU.

HOU allowed 19.7 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 6th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 137 yards and no touchdowns against HOU.

By points allowed to the position, Dalton Kincaid has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Travis Kelce was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Dalton Kincaid was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Travis Kelce played 17 games for KC and scored 193.2 PPR points, 11.4 a game, finishing TE3.

He caught 76 of 108 targets for 851 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 11 red zone targets and 428 air yards.

He was on the field for 81 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Travis Kelce, Week 18 of 2025 against LV: 6 targets and 3 catches for 12 yards, 4.2 PPR points.

Travis Kelce, Week 17 of 2025 against DEN: 42 of 43 snaps, 6 targets and 5 catches for 36 yards, 8.6 PPR points.

Travis Kelce, Week 16 of 2025 against TEN: 35 of 45 snaps, 4 targets and 1 catch for 6 yards, 1.6 PPR points.

In 2025, Dalton Kincaid played 12 games for BUF and scored 126.1 PPR points, 10.5 a game, finishing TE20.

He caught 39 of 49 targets for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 312 air yards.

He was on the field for 40 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Dalton Kincaid, Week 18 of 2025 against NYJ: 3 targets and 3 catches for 48 yards, 7.8 PPR points.

Dalton Kincaid, Week 16 of 2025 against CLE: 19 of 50 snaps, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Dalton Kincaid, Week 15 of 2025 against NE: 25 of 70 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 34 yards, 6.4 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Travis Kelce scored 10.1 PPR points and Dalton Kincaid scored 18.0.

The call was wrong: Dalton Kincaid outscored Travis Kelce by 7.9.

Travis Kelce finished 1.5 points above the 8.6 the props implied.

Travis Kelce, Week 1 against DEN: 49 of 69 snaps, 5 targets and 3 catches for 71 yards, 10.1 PPR points.

Travis Kelce finished as the week's TE16 in PPR scoring.

Dalton Kincaid, Week 1 against HOU: 42 of 58 snaps, 6 targets and 5 catches for 130 yards, 18.0 PPR points.

Dalton Kincaid finished as the week's TE5 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Dallas Goedert over Travis Kelce.
• Start George Kittle over Travis Kelce.
• Start Harold Fannin Jr. over Travis Kelce.
• Start Dalton Kincaid over Brenton Strange.
• Start Dallas Goedert over Dalton Kincaid.
• Start Dalton Kincaid over Hunter Henry.