Start Josh Downs or Tyler Warren? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Tyler Warren over Josh Downs in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Tyler Warren at 11.5 points and Josh Downs at 11.4, a gap of 0.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Tyler Warren's number is scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 11.5 fantasy points for Tyler Warren, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The books have Tyler Warren at 44.5 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions, with a 28% chance to score a touchdown (13, 12 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 11.4 fantasy points for Josh Downs, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The books have Josh Downs at 50.5 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions, with a 26% chance to score a touchdown (15, 11 and 15 books).

That puts Tyler Warren 0.1 points ahead of Josh Downs on the books.

Injury status

Tyler Warren is not on the injury report.

Josh Downs is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Josh Downs played 86 percent of IND snaps, drew 22 percent of the targets, earned 30 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

Josh Downs, Week 1 against BAL: 48 of 54 snaps, 4 targets and 2 catches for 37 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 2 against KC: 54 of 65 snaps, 9 targets and 7 catches for 72 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Josh Downs played 16 games for IND and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 422 air yards.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Josh Downs, Week 18 of 2025 against HOU: 1 carry for -5 yards, 4 targets and 4 catches for 61 yards, 9.6 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Tyler Warren over Denzel Boston.
• Start Tyler Warren over Devaughn Vele.
• Start Tyler Warren over DJ Moore.
• Start Josh Downs over Denzel Boston.
• Start Josh Downs over Devaughn Vele.
• Start Josh Downs over DJ Moore.