Josh Downs or Tyler Warren: who should I start in Week 3?

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Josh Downs at 11.4 PPR points a game, built from 4 markets across 15 books. That is the 80th highest figure of the 186 players the books price.

The player markets price Tyler Warren at 10.9 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 15 books. That is the 85th highest figure of the 186 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Josh Downs: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 61st overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 126.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Tyler Warren: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 62nd overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 93.

This season through Week 2

Through Week 2, Josh Downs has been on the field for 86 percent of IND snaps, drawn 22 percent of the targets and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 6 of the offence's 13 third down targets, had 0 of its 6 chances inside the five and seen 2 of its 6 two minute targets.

His 13 targets have averaged 8.4 air yards.

In Week 1 against BAL he caught 2 of 4 targets for 37 yards and did not score.

In Week 2 against KC he caught 7 of 9 targets for 72 yards and did not score.

Through Week 2, Tyler Warren has been on the field for 91 percent of IND snaps, drawn 20 percent of the targets and had 17 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 13 third down targets, had 1 of its 6 chances inside the five and seen 2 of its 6 two minute targets.

His 12 targets have averaged 0.8 air yards.

In Week 1 against BAL he caught 3 of 5 targets for 13 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 2 against KC he carried 1 time for 3 yards, caught 6 of 7 targets for 21 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Josh Downs played 16 games and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets.

That came to 5.5 targets a game, a 66 percent catch rate and 9.8 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Tyler Warren played 17 games and scored 188.5 PPR points, 11.1 a game, finishing TE4.

He caught 76 of 112 targets for 817 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 19 red zone targets.

That came to 6.6 targets a game, a 68 percent catch rate and 10.8 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 84 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Tyler Warren was available for 1 game more.

Side by side

In 2025 Tyler Warren scored 11.1 PPR points a game and Josh Downs 8.5, 2.6 a game between them.

Josh Downs finished WR44 and Tyler Warren TE4, which are two different ladders.

Josh Downs is a wide receiver and Tyler Warren a tight end, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Both are off in Week 13, so a roster holding the pair has that one week to cover twice.

What would change the answer

0.5 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.