Start Lamar Jackson or Matthew Stafford? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Matthew Stafford over Lamar Jackson
Wrong: 5.1 to 25.0
- Books imply
- 10.4
- fantasy pts
- SF D vs QB
- 6.5
- 2nd fewest to QBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 84%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 5.1
- PPR pts
- Books imply
- 3.8
- fantasy pts
- IND D vs QB
- 25.0
- 7th most to QBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 100%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 25.0
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Matthew Stafford over Lamar Jackson in Week 1.
De-vigged player props project Matthew Stafford at 10.4 points and Lamar Jackson at 3.8, a gap of 6.7. Drafters take Matthew Stafford at ADP 72 and Lamar Jackson at 54. Market coverage on Matthew Stafford is 45 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 3.8 fantasy points for Lamar Jackson, with 40 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.
Player prop markets imply 10.4 fantasy points for Matthew Stafford, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.
That puts Matthew Stafford 6.7 points ahead of Lamar Jackson on the books.
Week 1 matchups
Lamar Jackson and BAL visit IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
IND allowed 25.0 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 7th most in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 324 yards and a touchdown against IND, with no interceptions.
Matthew Stafford and LAR host SF on Thursday at 8:35 PM ET.
SF allowed 6.5 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 2nd fewest in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 168 yards and no touchdowns against SF, with an interception.
By points allowed to the position, Lamar Jackson has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Lamar Jackson was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Matthew Stafford was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Lamar Jackson played 13 games for BAL and scored 221.9 PPR points, 17.1 a game, finishing QB20.
He completed 192 of 302 passes for 2549 yards, 21 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 67 times for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns.
He was on the field for 92 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Lamar Jackson, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 11 of 18 passes for 238 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 4 carries for 9 yards, 21.4 PPR points.
Lamar Jackson, Week 16 of 2025 against NE: 26 of 55 snaps, 7 of 10 passes for 101 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 7 yards, 4.7 PPR points.
Lamar Jackson, Week 15 of 2025 against CIN: 36 of 41 snaps, 8 of 12 passes for 150 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 26 yards, 15.6 PPR points.
In 2025, Matthew Stafford played 17 games for LAR and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.
He completed 388 of 597 passes for 4707 yards, 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.
He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Matthew Stafford, Week 18 of 2025 against ARI: 25 of 40 passes for 259 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 3 yards, 26.7 PPR points.
Matthew Stafford, Week 17 of 2025 against ATL: 65 of 65 snaps, 22 of 38 passes for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, 15.8 PPR points.
Matthew Stafford, Week 16 of 2025 against SEA: 92 of 92 snaps, 29 of 49 passes for 457 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 6 yards, 30.9 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Matthew Stafford scored 5.1 PPR points and Lamar Jackson scored 25.0.
The call was wrong: Lamar Jackson outscored Matthew Stafford by 19.9.
Matthew Stafford finished 5.3 points below the 10.4 the props implied.
Matthew Stafford, Week 1 against SF: 51 of 61 snaps, 15 of 25 passes for 155 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for -1 yards, 5.1 PPR points.
Matthew Stafford finished as the week's QB32 in PPR scoring.
Lamar Jackson finished 21.2 points above the 3.8 the props implied.
Lamar Jackson, Week 1 against IND: 68 of 68 snaps, 17 of 25 passes for 324 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 7 carries for 40 yards, 25.0 PPR points.
Lamar Jackson finished as the week's QB7 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
QB2 · BAL · bye 13
2025 vs pass yds line 5-8
- Overall rank
- 16
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 1
Ranked behind
QB24 · LAR · bye 11
2025 vs pass yds line 9-8
- Overall rank
- 62
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 3
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board46
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 1 and tier 3
- Board size244 draftable players
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