Start Woody Marks or Tyjae Spears? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Tyjae Spears over Woody Marks
Wrong: 4.4 to 5.0
- Books imply
- 1.8
- fantasy pts
- NYJ D vs RB
- 8.8
- 2nd fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 50%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 14%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 4.4
- PPR pts

- Books imply
- 0.9
- fantasy pts
- BUF D vs RB
- 33.9
- 7th most to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 51%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 3%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 5.0
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Tyjae Spears over Woody Marks in Week 1.
De-vigged player props project Tyjae Spears at 1.8 points and Woody Marks at 0.9, a gap of 0.9. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Tyjae Spears at ADP 143 and Woody Marks at 144. Market coverage on Tyjae Spears is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 1.8 fantasy points for Tyjae Spears, with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
Player prop markets imply 1.0 fantasy points for Woody Marks, with 40 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
That puts Tyjae Spears 0.9 points ahead of Woody Marks on the books.
Week 1 matchups
Tyjae Spears and TEN host NYJ on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
NYJ allowed 8.8 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 2nd fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 47 yards and no touchdowns against NYJ and caught passes for 11 more yards.
Woody Marks and HOU host BUF on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
BUF allowed 33.9 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 7th most in the league.
Running backs ran for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns against BUF and caught passes for 17 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Woody Marks has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Tyjae Spears was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Woody Marks was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Tyjae Spears played 13 games for TEN and scored 111.7 PPR points, 8.6 a game, finishing RB44.
He ran 72 times for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 45 of 50 targets for 264 yards.
He was on the field for 46 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Tyjae Spears, Week 18 of 2025 against JAX: 3 carries for 18 yards, 7 targets and 7 catches for 9 yards, 9.7 PPR points.
Tyjae Spears, Week 17 of 2025 against NO: 39 of 74 snaps, 6 carries for 2 yards, 2 targets and 1 catch for -1 yards, 1.1 PPR points.
Tyjae Spears, Week 16 of 2025 against KC: 34 of 73 snaps, 13 carries for 52 yards, 5 targets and 5 catches for 53 yards, 1 touchdown, 21.5 PPR points.
In 2025, Woody Marks played 16 games for HOU and scored 151.1 PPR points, 9.4 a game, finishing RB29.
He ran 196 times for 703 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 24 of 36 targets for 208 yards.
He was on the field for 53 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Woody Marks, Week 18 of 2025 against IND: 10 carries for 48 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 0 yards, 6.8 PPR points.
Woody Marks, Week 17 of 2025 against LAC: 44 of 65 snaps, 19 carries for 71 yards, 2 targets and 1 catch for 4 yards, 8.5 PPR points.
Woody Marks, Week 15 of 2025 against ARI: 15 of 67 snaps, 7 carries for 30 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 8 yards, 10.8 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Tyjae Spears scored 4.4 PPR points and Woody Marks scored 5.0.
The call was wrong: Woody Marks outscored Tyjae Spears by 0.6.
Tyjae Spears finished 2.6 points above the 1.8 the props implied.
Tyjae Spears, Week 1 against NYJ: 25 of 50 snaps, 3 carries for 12 yards, 4 targets and 2 catches for 12 yards, 4.4 PPR points.
Tyjae Spears finished as the week's RB45 in PPR scoring.
Woody Marks finished 4.1 points above the 1.0 the props implied.
Woody Marks, Week 1 against BUF: 40 of 79 snaps, 9 carries for 42 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for -2 yards, 5.0 PPR points.
Woody Marks finished as the week's RB42 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
RB27 · HOU · bye 8
2025 vs catches line 3-7
- Overall rank
- 55
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 4
Ranked behind
RB30 · TEN · bye 9
2025 vs rush yds line 5-8
- Overall rank
- 58
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 4
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board3
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersboth in tier 4
- Board size244 draftable players
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