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Trade Josh Downs for Travis Kelce? Close to even, 37 to 34.

Close to even. On rest-of-season value Josh Downs is 37 and Travis Kelce is 34, a 3 point edge to Downs that sits inside the 8 points these values cannot separate. Take the one your lineup is short of. Downs rates 12.5 market points a game with 11 games left, Kelce 12.3 with 12. On usage, Downs has drawn 23 percent of IND targets; Kelce has drawn 19 percent of KC targets. Downs hosts TEN in Week 6 (14th most points allowed to WRs); Kelce hosts LAC in Week 6 (8th fewest points allowed to TEs). Neither carries an injury designation this week.

The verdict, Week 5

Close to even.

Josh Downs 3734 Travis Kelce

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Josh Downs

WR18IND

37

value, #42

Pts/game
12.5
Games left
11
Bye
13
Josh Downs weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5
11.414.212.5

Travis Kelce

TE3KC

34

value, #49

Pts/game
12.3
Games left
12
Bye
5
Travis Kelce weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5
12.611.9not priced

Where the values come from

Downs is the 18th receiver on the chart and 42nd overall. His 12.5 a game is 3.4 above the replacement receiver's 9.1, over 11 games left with his bye in Week 13, which is how he comes to 37.

Kelce is the 3rd tight end on the chart and 49th overall. His 12.3 a game is 2.8 above the replacement tight end's 9.5, over 12 games left with no bye left, which is how he comes to 34.

The weekly market prices

The market priced Josh Downs at 11.4 in Week 3, 14.2 in Week 4 and 12.5 in Week 5, a median of 12.5 points a game, up 1.1 from his first frozen week to his latest.

The market priced Travis Kelce at 12.6 in Week 3 and 11.9 in Week 4, a median of 12.3 points a game, down 0.7 from his first frozen week to his latest.

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Points so far against the price

Josh Downs has scored 44.9 PPR points in 5 games, 9.0 a game, 3.5 a game less than the 12.5 the market prices him at from here.

Last season he finished WR44 with 136.4 PPR points in 16 games, 8.5 a game.

Week 1 vs BAL: 5.7 points (WR65 that week), 2 of 4 targets for 37 yards, 89 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs KC: 14.2 points (WR20 that week), 7 of 9 targets for 72 yards, 83 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs HOU: 12.7 points (WR30 that week), 5 of 11 targets for 77 yards, 68 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs WAS: 4.6 points (WR77 that week), 3 of 4 targets for 16 yards, 77 percent of snaps.

Week 5 vs PIT: 7.7 points (WR40 that week), 3 of 6 targets for 47 yards.

Travis Kelce has scored 52.6 PPR points in 4 games, 13.2 a game, 0.8 a game more than the 12.3 the market prices him at from here.

Last season he finished TE3 with 193.2 PPR points in 17 games, 11.4 a game.

Week 1 vs DEN: 10.1 points (TE16 that week), 3 of 5 targets for 71 yards, 71 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs IND: 25.1 points (TE2 that week), 9 of 11 targets for 101 yards, 1 touchdown, 85 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs MIA: 13.9 points (TE11 that week), 2 of 2 targets for 59 yards, 1 touchdown, 79 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs LV: 3.5 points (TE32 that week), 2 of 4 targets for 15 yards, 83 percent of snaps.

Usage a game this season

Through Week 4, Josh Downs has averaged 7.0 targets and 4.3 catches for 51 yards a game on 79 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 4 times inside the 20, 11 percent of his team's chances there, and has not scored in 4 games.

In Week 4 against WAS he had 4 targets on 77 percent of the snaps.

Through Week 4, Travis Kelce has averaged 5.5 targets and 4.0 catches for 62 yards a game on 80 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 2 times inside the 20, 5 percent of his team's chances there, and has scored 2 touchdowns in 4 games.

In Week 4 against LV he had 4 targets on 83 percent of the snaps.

Schedule and next matchup

A trade made now buys Week 6 through Week 17. Josh Downs has 11 games in it with his bye in Week 13; Travis Kelce has 12 games with no bye left.

TEN, Downs's Week 6 opponent, has allowed 34.1 PPR points a game to WRs this season over 4 games, the 14th most to WRs of 32.

LAC, Kelce's Week 6 opponent, has allowed 9.9 PPR points a game to TEs this season over 4 games, the 8th fewest to TEs of 32.

Other trades for Josh Downs and Travis Kelce

The full Week 5 trade value chart

Common questions

  • Should I trade Josh Downs for Travis Kelce?

    It is close to even: Josh Downs is 37 and Travis Kelce is 34 on rest-of-season value, inside the 8 points the values cannot separate. Take the one who starts for you.

  • Who has more rest-of-season value, Josh Downs or Travis Kelce?

    Josh Downs, 37 to 34. He rates 12.5 market points a game over 11 games left, against 12.3 over 12 for Travis Kelce, each measured above a replacement starter at his own position.

  • How are these trade values calculated?

    Each player's points per game is the median of the market-based PPR points we froze before each week's first kickoff, Weeks 3, 4, 5. A replacement starter's rate is subtracted and the rest is multiplied by his games from Week 6 to Week 17, bye taken out. No expert opinion is involved.

By the Parlae deskValues updated Oct 12, 2026 at 9:06 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number