Jayden Reed or Brian Thomas Jr.: who should I start?

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Jayden Reed at 8.8 PPR points a game, built from 4 markets across 16 books. That is the 109th highest figure of the 183 players the books price.

The player markets price Brian Thomas Jr. at 7.5 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 16 books. That is the 140th highest figure of the 183 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Jayden Reed: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 97th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 106.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Brian Thomas Jr.: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 118th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 91.

This season through Week 1

Through Week 1, Jayden Reed has been on the field for 57 percent of GB snaps, drawn 18 percent of the targets and had 10 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 3 of the offence's 10 third down targets, had 0 of its 1 chance inside the five and seen 0 of its 9 two minute targets.

His 7 targets have averaged 7.1 air yards.

In Week 1 against MIN he caught 3 of 7 targets for 20 yards and did not score.

Through Week 1, Brian Thomas Jr. has been on the field for 35 percent of JAX snaps, drawn 14 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 2 third down targets and had 0 of its 1 chance inside the five.

His 3 targets have averaged 14.7 air yards.

In Week 1 against CLE he caught 3 of 3 targets for 40 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Jayden Reed played 7 games and scored 48.5 PPR points, 6.9 a game, finishing WR114.

He caught 19 of 22 targets for 207 yards and 1 touchdown, with 3 red zone targets.

That came to 3.1 targets a game, a 86 percent catch rate and 10.9 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 45 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.

He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets.

That came to 6.5 targets a game, a 53 percent catch rate and 14.7 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 79 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Brian Thomas Jr. was available for 7 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Brian Thomas Jr. scored 9.9 PPR points a game and Jayden Reed 6.9, 3.0 a game between them.

Jayden Reed finished WR114 that year and Brian Thomas Jr. WR42.

Brian Thomas Jr. had 69 more targets than Jayden Reed, 91 to 22.

Brian Thomas Jr. had 500 more receiving yards than Jayden Reed, 707 to 207.

This season Jayden Reed holds the bigger snap share, 57 percent against 35 percent.

This season Jayden Reed holds the bigger target share, 18 percent against 14 percent.

Byes and availability

Jayden Reed is off in Week 11 and Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 7, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

1.4 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.