Start Aaron Jones Sr. or Rico Dowdle? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Rico Dowdle over Aaron Jones Sr. in Week 1.

Rico Dowdle is priced by the books at 7.2 projected points. Aaron Jones Sr. has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Rico Dowdle at ADP 79 and Aaron Jones Sr. at 91. Market coverage on Rico Dowdle is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 7.2 fantasy points for Rico Dowdle, with 70 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for Aaron Jones Sr. in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Rico Dowdle and PIT host ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

ATL allowed 14.4 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 9th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 61 yards and no touchdowns against ATL and caught passes for 33 more yards.

Aaron Jones Sr. and MIN host GB.

GB allowed 23.0 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 16th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 99 yards and 2 touchdowns against GB and caught passes for 1 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Aaron Jones Sr. has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Rico Dowdle was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Aaron Jones Sr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Rico Dowdle played 17 games for CAR and scored 216.3 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing RB18.

He ran 236 times for 1076 yards and 6 touchdowns, and caught 39 of 50 targets for 297 yards.

He was on the field for 56 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Rico Dowdle, Week 18 of 2025 against TB: 27 of 51 snaps, 7 carries for 10 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 20 yards, 3.0 PPR points.

Rico Dowdle, Week 17 of 2025 against SEA: 34 of 53 snaps, 12 carries for 59 yards, 5 targets and 3 catches for 4 yards, 9.3 PPR points.

Rico Dowdle, Week 16 of 2025 against TB: 31 of 54 snaps, 9 carries for 29 yards, 6 targets and 4 catches for 14 yards, 8.3 PPR points.

In 2025, Aaron Jones Sr. played 12 games for MIN and scored 118.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing RB41.

He ran 132 times for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 28 of 41 targets for 199 yards.

He was on the field for 55 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 17 of 2025 against DET: 35 of 54 snaps, 18 carries for 53 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 10 yards, 1 touchdown, 15.3 PPR points.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 16 of 2025 against NYG: 39 of 61 snaps, 21 carries for 85 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 8 yards, 11.3 PPR points.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 15 of 2025 against DAL: 32 of 55 snaps, 12 carries for 34 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 31 yards, 9.5 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Rico Dowdle scored 4.1 PPR points and Aaron Jones Sr. scored 10.0.

The call was wrong: Aaron Jones Sr. outscored Rico Dowdle by 5.9.

Rico Dowdle finished 3.1 points below the 7.2 the props implied.

Rico Dowdle, Week 1 against ATL: 39 of 67 snaps, 8 carries for 15 yards, 5 targets and 2 catches for 6 yards, 4.1 PPR points.

Rico Dowdle finished as the week's RB48 in PPR scoring.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 1 against GB: 30 of 65 snaps, 12 carries for 40 yards, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards, 1 touchdown, 10.0 PPR points.

Aaron Jones Sr. finished as the week's RB26 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Chuba Hubbard over Rico Dowdle.
• Start Jadarian Price over Rico Dowdle.
• Start Jaylen Warren over Rico Dowdle.
• Start J.K. Dobbins over Aaron Jones Sr..
• Start Aaron Jones Sr. over RJ Harvey.
• Start Jaleel McLaughlin over Aaron Jones Sr..