Start Deshaun Watson or Baker Mayfield? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Deshaun Watson over Baker Mayfield in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Deshaun Watson at 16.9 points and Baker Mayfield at 16.8, a gap of 0.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 16.9 fantasy points for Deshaun Watson, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Deshaun Watson at 190.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 25.5 rushing yards, with a 19% chance to score a touchdown (15, 16, 11 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 16.8 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Baker Mayfield at 216.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 16.5 rushing yards, with a 13% chance to score a touchdown (14, 17, 12 and 15 books).

That puts Deshaun Watson 0.1 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the books.

Injury status

Deshaun Watson is not on the injury report.

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Deshaun Watson played 100 percent of CLE snaps, dropped back 65 times and threw an average of 6.5 air yards per attempt.

Deshaun Watson, Week 1 against JAX: 51 of 51 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 205 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 38 yards.

Deshaun Watson, Week 2 against TB: 58 of 58 snaps, 24 of 30 passes for 238 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 24 yards.

Through Week 2, Baker Mayfield played 100 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 76 times and threw an average of 9.1 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Baker Mayfield, Week 18 of 2025 against CAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 31 yards, 14.2 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Deshaun Watson over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Deshaun Watson over Bo Nix.
• Start Bryce Young over Deshaun Watson.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Cam Ward.