Start Joe Burrow or Baker Mayfield? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Joe Burrow over Baker Mayfield in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Joe Burrow at 17.2 points and Baker Mayfield at 16.8, a gap of 0.5. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 17.2 fantasy points for Joe Burrow, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Joe Burrow at 253.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 5.5 rushing yards, with a 12% chance to score a touchdown (16, 18, 16 and 16 books).

Player prop markets imply 16.8 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Baker Mayfield at 216.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 16.5 rushing yards, with a 14% chance to score a touchdown (12, 18, 13 and 15 books).

That puts Joe Burrow 0.5 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the books.

Injury status

Joe Burrow is not on the injury report.

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Joe Burrow played 100 percent of CIN snaps, dropped back 73 times and threw an average of 6.0 air yards per attempt.

Joe Burrow, Week 1 against TB: 64 of 64 snaps, 25 of 35 passes for 254 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 21 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 2 against HOU: 60 of 60 snaps, 20 of 31 passes for 207 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Through Week 2, Baker Mayfield played 100 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 76 times and threw an average of 9.1 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Joe Burrow played 8 games for CIN and scored 139.5 PPR points, 17.4 a game, finishing QB29.

He completed 173 of 259 passes for 1809 yards, 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran 14 times for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Joe Burrow, Week 18 of 2025 against CLE: 29 of 39 passes for 236 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 17 yards, 22.1 PPR points.

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Baker Mayfield, Week 18 of 2025 against CAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 31 yards, 14.2 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Joe Burrow over Bo Nix.
• Start Bryce Young over Joe Burrow.
• Start Joe Burrow over C.J. Stroud.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Cam Ward.