Start Bo Nix or Baker Mayfield? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield in Week 1.

Bo Nix is priced by the books at 10.9 projected points. Baker Mayfield has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Bo Nix at ADP 109 and Baker Mayfield at 126.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 10.9 fantasy points for Bo Nix, with 75 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for Baker Mayfield in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Bo Nix and DEN visit KC on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

KC allowed 6.4 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 131 yards and a touchdown against KC, with an interception.

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CIN.

CIN allowed 11.6 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 6th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 216 yards and no touchdowns against CIN, with no interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Bo Nix was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Baker Mayfield was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Bo Nix played 17 games for DEN and scored 315.8 PPR points, 18.6 a game, finishing QB7.

He completed 388 of 612 passes for 3931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 100 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Bo Nix, Week 18 of 2025 against LAC: 14 of 23 passes for 141 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 49 yards, 10.5 PPR points.

Bo Nix, Week 17 of 2025 against KC: 72 of 72 snaps, 26 of 38 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 9 carries for 42 yards, 20.5 PPR points.

Bo Nix, Week 16 of 2025 against JAX: 66 of 66 snaps, 28 of 47 passes for 352 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 11 yards, 16.2 PPR points.

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Baker Mayfield, Week 18 of 2025 against CAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 31 yards, 14.2 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield, Week 17 of 2025 against MIA: 67 of 67 snaps, 33 of 44 passes for 346 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 16 yards, 19.4 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield, Week 16 of 2025 against CAR: 64 of 64 snaps, 18 of 26 passes for 145 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 49 yards, 13.7 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Bo Nix scored 6.4 PPR points and Baker Mayfield scored 11.6.

The call was wrong: Baker Mayfield outscored Bo Nix by 5.2.

Bo Nix finished 4.4 points below the 10.9 the props implied.

Bo Nix, Week 1 against KC: 51 of 51 snaps, 17 of 28 passes for 131 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 2 yards, 6.4 PPR points.

Bo Nix finished as the week's QB31 in PPR scoring.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 30 yards, 11.6 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield finished as the week's QB27 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Brock Purdy over Bo Nix.
• Start Bo Nix over Jared Goff.
• Start Jaxson Dart over Bo Nix.
• Start Jaxson Dart over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Jordan Love.
• Start Justin Herbert over Baker Mayfield.