Start Brian Thomas Jr. or DK Metcalf? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Brian Thomas Jr. over DK Metcalf
Wrong: 7.0 to 8.0- Books imply
- 8.3
- fantasy pts
- CLE D vs WR
- 48.5
- 3rd most to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 35%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 14%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 7.0
- PPR pts
- Books imply
- 5.0
- fantasy pts
- ATL D vs WR
- 22.4
- 8th fewest to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 96%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 27%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 8.0
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Brian Thomas Jr. over DK Metcalf in Week 1.
De-vigged player props project Brian Thomas Jr. at 8.3 points and DK Metcalf at 5.0, a gap of 3.4. Drafters take Brian Thomas Jr. at ADP 75 and DK Metcalf at 65.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 5.0 fantasy points for DK Metcalf, with 40 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
Player prop markets imply 8.4 fantasy points for Brian Thomas Jr., with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
That puts Brian Thomas Jr. 3.4 points ahead of DK Metcalf on the books.
Week 1 matchups
DK Metcalf and PIT host ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
ATL allowed 22.4 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 8th fewest in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 124 yards and no touchdowns against ATL.
Brian Thomas Jr. and JAX host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
CLE allowed 48.5 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 3rd most in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 183 yards and 3 touchdowns against CLE.
By points allowed to the position, Brian Thomas Jr. has the softer matchup.
Injury status
DK Metcalf was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Brian Thomas Jr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, DK Metcalf played 15 games for PIT and scored 187.2 PPR points, 12.5 a game, finishing WR26.
He caught 59 of 99 targets for 850 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 13 red zone targets and 436 air yards.
He was on the field for 87 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
DK Metcalf, Week 16 of 2025 against DET: 65 of 74 snaps, 9 targets and 4 catches for 42 yards, 8.2 PPR points.
DK Metcalf, Week 15 of 2025 against MIA: 52 of 66 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 55 yards, 1 touchdown, 14.5 PPR points.
In 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games for JAX and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.
He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 548 air yards.
He was on the field for 79 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 5 targets and 3 catches for 49 yards, 7.9 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 54 of 69 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 39 yards, 7.9 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 16 of 2025 against DEN: 51 of 70 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards, 3.8 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Brian Thomas Jr. scored 7.0 PPR points and DK Metcalf scored 8.0.
The call was wrong: DK Metcalf outscored Brian Thomas Jr. by 1.0.
Brian Thomas Jr. finished 1.3 points below the 8.4 the props implied.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 1 against CLE: 20 of 57 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 40 yards, 7.0 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr. finished as the week's WR58 in PPR scoring.
DK Metcalf finished 3.0 points above the 5.0 the props implied.
DK Metcalf, Week 1 against ATL: 64 of 67 snaps, 10 targets and 4 catches for 40 yards, 8.0 PPR points.
DK Metcalf finished as the week's WR50 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
WR28 · JAX · bye 7
2025 vs rec yds line 4-10
- Overall rank
- 95
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
Ranked behind
WR33 · PIT · bye 9
2025 vs catches line 5-10
- Overall rank
- 100
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board5
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersboth in tier 5
- Board size244 draftable players
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