Start Brian Thomas Jr. or Michael Wilson? Week 1
Locked at kickoff. Graded after.
Start Brian Thomas Jr. over Michael Wilson
Wrong: 7.0 to 10.6- Books implied
- 8.3
- pre-game
- CLE D vs WR
- 48.5
- 3rd most to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 35%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 14%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 7.0
- PPR pts
- LAC D vs WR
- 30.4
- 14th most to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 85%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 19%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 10.6
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Brian Thomas Jr. over Michael Wilson in Week 1.
Brian Thomas Jr. is priced by the books at 8.3 projected points. Michael Wilson has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Brian Thomas Jr. at ADP 81 and Michael Wilson at 76.
What the books imply
No sportsbook posted a player market for Michael Wilson in Week 1.
Player prop markets imply 8.4 fantasy points for Brian Thomas Jr., with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
Week 1 matchups
Michael Wilson and ARI visit LAC.
LAC allowed 30.4 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 14th most in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 164 yards and no touchdowns against LAC.
Brian Thomas Jr. and JAX host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
CLE allowed 48.5 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 3rd most in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 183 yards and 3 touchdowns against CLE.
By points allowed to the position, Brian Thomas Jr. has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Michael Wilson was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Brian Thomas Jr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Michael Wilson played 17 games for ARI and scored 220.6 PPR points, 13.0 a game, finishing WR10.
He caught 78 of 126 targets for 1006 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 15 red zone targets and 733 air yards.
He was on the field for 81 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Michael Wilson, Week 18 of 2025 against LAR: 8 targets and 5 catches for 99 yards, 1 touchdown, 20.9 PPR points.
Michael Wilson, Week 17 of 2025 against CIN: 49 of 57 snaps, 10 targets and 5 catches for 89 yards, 1 touchdown, 19.9 PPR points.
Michael Wilson, Week 16 of 2025 against ATL: 49 of 57 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 52 yards, 1 touchdown, 13.2 PPR points.
In 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games for JAX and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.
He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 548 air yards.
He was on the field for 79 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 5 targets and 3 catches for 49 yards, 7.9 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 54 of 69 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 39 yards, 7.9 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 16 of 2025 against DEN: 51 of 70 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards, 3.8 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Brian Thomas Jr. scored 7.0 PPR points and Michael Wilson scored 10.6.
The call was wrong: Michael Wilson outscored Brian Thomas Jr. by 3.6.
Brian Thomas Jr. finished 1.3 points below the 8.4 the props implied.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 1 against CLE: 20 of 57 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 40 yards, 7.0 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr. finished as the week's WR58 in PPR scoring.
Michael Wilson, Week 1 against LAC: 64 of 75 snaps, 7 targets and 5 catches for 56 yards, 10.6 PPR points.
Michael Wilson finished as the week's WR31 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
WR50 · JAX · bye 7
2025 vs rec yds line 4-10
- Overall rank
- 117
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 12
Ranked behind
WR75 · ARI · bye 14
2025 vs catches line 8-9
- Overall rank
- 197
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 20
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. This call locked at kickoff and was not edited after. It is on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board80
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 12 and tier 20
- Board size242 draftable players
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