Start Brian Thomas Jr. or Quentin Johnston? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Brian Thomas Jr. over Quentin Johnston
Right: 7.0 to 3.7- Books imply
- 8.3
- fantasy pts
- CLE D vs WR
- 48.5
- 3rd most to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 35%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 14%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 7.0
- PPR pts
- ARI D vs WR
- 27.9
- 16th fewest to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 78%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 22%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 3.7
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Brian Thomas Jr. over Quentin Johnston in Week 1.
Brian Thomas Jr. is priced by the books at 8.3 projected points. Quentin Johnston has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Brian Thomas Jr. at ADP 81 and Quentin Johnston at 90.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 8.4 fantasy points for Brian Thomas Jr., with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Quentin Johnston in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Brian Thomas Jr. and JAX host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
CLE allowed 48.5 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 3rd most in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 183 yards and 3 touchdowns against CLE.
Quentin Johnston and LAC host ARI.
ARI allowed 27.9 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 16th fewest in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 119 yards and a touchdown against ARI.
By points allowed to the position, Brian Thomas Jr. has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Brian Thomas Jr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Quentin Johnston was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games for JAX and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.
He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 548 air yards.
He was on the field for 79 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 5 targets and 3 catches for 49 yards, 7.9 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 54 of 69 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 39 yards, 7.9 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 16 of 2025 against DEN: 51 of 70 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards, 3.8 PPR points.
In 2025, Quentin Johnston played 14 games for LAC and scored 171.2 PPR points, 12.2 a game, finishing WR34.
He caught 51 of 85 targets for 735 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 15 red zone targets and 514 air yards.
He was on the field for 77 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Quentin Johnston, Week 17 of 2025 against HOU: 47 of 63 snaps, 8 targets and 5 catches for 98 yards, 14.8 PPR points.
Quentin Johnston, Week 16 of 2025 against DAL: 37 of 64 snaps, 5 targets and 4 catches for 104 yards, 1 touchdown, 20.4 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Brian Thomas Jr. scored 7.0 PPR points and Quentin Johnston scored 3.7.
The call was right: Brian Thomas Jr. outscored Quentin Johnston by 3.3.
Brian Thomas Jr. finished 1.3 points below the 8.4 the props implied.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 1 against CLE: 20 of 57 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 40 yards, 7.0 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr. finished as the week's WR58 in PPR scoring.
Quentin Johnston, Week 1 against ARI: 43 of 55 snaps, 6 targets and 2 catches for 17 yards, 3.7 PPR points.
Quentin Johnston finished as the week's WR82 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
WR28 · JAX · bye 7
2025 vs rec yds line 4-10
- Overall rank
- 95
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
Ranked behind
WR59 · LAC · bye 7
2025 vs rec yds line 4-10
- Overall rank
- 162
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 9
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board67
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 5 and tier 9
- Board size244 draftable players
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