Start Trevor Lawrence or Brock Purdy? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Brock Purdy over Trevor Lawrence in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project Brock Purdy at 9.7 points and Trevor Lawrence at 9.4, a gap of 0.3. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Brock Purdy at ADP 85 and Trevor Lawrence at 93. Market coverage on Brock Purdy is 45 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 9.7 fantasy points for Brock Purdy, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 9.4 fantasy points for Trevor Lawrence, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

That puts Brock Purdy 0.3 points ahead of Trevor Lawrence on the books.

Week 1 matchups

Brock Purdy and SF visit LAR on Thursday at 8:35 PM ET.

LAR allowed 22.1 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 10th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 205 yards and 3 touchdowns against LAR, with an interception.

Trevor Lawrence and JAX host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CLE allowed 25.8 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 5th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 245 yards and 4 touchdowns against CLE, with no interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, Trevor Lawrence has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Brock Purdy was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Trevor Lawrence was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Brock Purdy played 9 games for SF and scored 187.4 PPR points, 20.8 a game, finishing QB24.

He completed 197 of 284 passes for 2167 yards, 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and ran 33 times for 147 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Brock Purdy, Week 18 of 2025 against SEA: 42 of 42 snaps, 19 of 27 passes for 127 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 21 yards, 6.2 PPR points.

Brock Purdy, Week 17 of 2025 against CHI: 72 of 72 snaps, 24 of 33 passes for 303 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 6 carries for 28 yards, 37.9 PPR points.

Brock Purdy, Week 16 of 2025 against IND: 63 of 66 snaps, 25 of 34 passes for 295 yards, 5 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 11 yards, 31.9 PPR points.

In 2025, Trevor Lawrence played 17 games for JAX and scored 350.2 PPR points, 20.6 a game, finishing QB4.

He completed 341 of 560 passes for 4007 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and ran 82 times for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 22 of 30 passes for 255 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 11 yards, 23.3 PPR points.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 69 of 69 snaps, 23 of 37 passes for 263 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 8 carries for 26 yards, 24.1 PPR points.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 16 of 2025 against DEN: 70 of 70 snaps, 23 of 36 passes for 279 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 20 yards, 31.2 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Brock Purdy scored 22.1 PPR points and Trevor Lawrence scored 26.1.

The call was wrong: Trevor Lawrence outscored Brock Purdy by 4.0.

Brock Purdy finished 12.4 points above the 9.7 the props implied.

Brock Purdy, Week 1 against LAR: 65 of 65 snaps, 25 of 34 passes for 205 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 29 yards, 22.1 PPR points.

Brock Purdy finished as the week's QB10 in PPR scoring.

Trevor Lawrence finished 16.7 points above the 9.4 the props implied.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 1 against CLE: 50 of 57 snaps, 18 of 23 passes for 245 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 3 yards, 26.1 PPR points.

Trevor Lawrence finished as the week's QB5 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Brock Purdy over Bo Nix.
• Start Brock Purdy over Caleb Williams.
• Start Brock Purdy over Jalen Hurts.
• Start Trevor Lawrence over Bo Nix.
• Start Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence.
• Start Jalen Hurts over Trevor Lawrence.