Start Bo Nix or Trevor Lawrence? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Trevor Lawrence over Bo Nix in Week 1.

Trevor Lawrence is priced by the books at 9.3 projected points. Bo Nix has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Trevor Lawrence at ADP 95 and Bo Nix at 109. Market coverage on Trevor Lawrence is 45 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 9.3 fantasy points for Trevor Lawrence, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for Bo Nix in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Trevor Lawrence and JAX host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CLE allowed 25.8 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 5th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 245 yards and 4 touchdowns against CLE, with no interceptions.

Bo Nix and DEN visit KC.

KC allowed 6.4 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 131 yards and a touchdown against KC, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Trevor Lawrence has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Trevor Lawrence was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Bo Nix was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Trevor Lawrence played 17 games for JAX and scored 350.2 PPR points, 20.6 a game, finishing QB4.

He completed 341 of 560 passes for 4007 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and ran 82 times for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 22 of 30 passes for 255 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 11 yards, 23.3 PPR points.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 69 of 69 snaps, 23 of 37 passes for 263 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 8 carries for 26 yards, 24.1 PPR points.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 16 of 2025 against DEN: 70 of 70 snaps, 23 of 36 passes for 279 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 20 yards, 31.2 PPR points.

In 2025, Bo Nix played 17 games for DEN and scored 315.8 PPR points, 18.6 a game, finishing QB7.

He completed 388 of 612 passes for 3931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 100 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Bo Nix, Week 18 of 2025 against LAC: 14 of 23 passes for 141 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 49 yards, 10.5 PPR points.

Bo Nix, Week 17 of 2025 against KC: 72 of 72 snaps, 26 of 38 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 9 carries for 42 yards, 20.5 PPR points.

Bo Nix, Week 16 of 2025 against JAX: 66 of 66 snaps, 28 of 47 passes for 352 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 11 yards, 16.2 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Trevor Lawrence scored 26.1 PPR points and Bo Nix scored 6.4.

The call was right: Trevor Lawrence outscored Bo Nix by 19.7.

Trevor Lawrence finished 16.8 points above the 9.3 the props implied.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 1 against CLE: 50 of 57 snaps, 18 of 23 passes for 245 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 3 yards, 26.1 PPR points.

Trevor Lawrence finished as the week's QB5 in PPR scoring.

Bo Nix, Week 1 against KC: 51 of 51 snaps, 17 of 28 passes for 131 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 2 yards, 6.4 PPR points.

Bo Nix finished as the week's QB31 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Brock Purdy over Trevor Lawrence.
• Start Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence.
• Start Jalen Hurts over Trevor Lawrence.
• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Brock Purdy over Bo Nix.
• Start Bo Nix over Jared Goff.