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Start Chase Brown or Derrick Henry? Week 2

Locks at kickoff, graded after.

Start Derrick Henry over Chase Brown

Start

Derrick Henry

RB · BAL · vs NO

Books imply
24.5
fantasy pts
NO D vs RB
36.4
5th most to RBs (2026)
Snap share
54%
Through Week 1
Target share
4%
Through Week 1
Sit

Chase Brown

RB · CIN · at HOU

Books imply
14.4
fantasy pts
HOU D vs RB
10.5
4th fewest to RBs (2026)
Snap share
72%
Through Week 1
Target share
18%
Through Week 1

Our Week 2 call

Start Derrick Henry over Chase Brown in Week 2.

De-vigged player props project Derrick Henry at 24.5 points and Chase Brown at 14.4, a gap of 10.2. Derrick Henry's number is scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have. Drafters take Derrick Henry at ADP 7 and Chase Brown at 9. Market coverage on Derrick Henry is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 24.5 fantasy points for Derrick Henry, with 70 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 14.4 fantasy points for Chase Brown, with 100 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

That puts Derrick Henry 10.2 points ahead of Chase Brown on the books.

Week 2 matchups

Derrick Henry and BAL host NO on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

NO allowed 36.4 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 5th most in the league.

Running backs ran for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns against NO and caught passes for 41 more yards.

Chase Brown and CIN visit HOU on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

HOU allowed 10.5 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 4th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 63 yards and no touchdowns against HOU and caught passes for 12 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Derrick Henry has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Derrick Henry is not on the injury report.

Chase Brown is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 2

Through Week 1, Derrick Henry played 54 percent of BAL snaps, took 71 percent of the carries, drew 4 percent of the targets and had 55 percent of the red zone chances.

Derrick Henry, Week 1 against IND: 37 of 68 snaps, 24 carries for 144 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 19 yards, 3 touchdowns.

Through Week 1, Chase Brown played 72 percent of CIN snaps, took 62 percent of the carries, drew 18 percent of the targets and had 40 percent of the red zone chances.

Chase Brown, Week 1 against TB: 46 of 64 snaps, 16 carries for 56 yards, 6 targets and 5 catches for 22 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Derrick Henry played 17 games for BAL and scored 279.5 PPR points, 16.4 a game, finishing RB8.

He ran 307 times for 1595 yards and 16 touchdowns, and caught 15 of 21 targets for 150 yards.

He was on the field for 54 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Derrick Henry, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 20 carries for 126 yards, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards, 12.6 PPR points.

Derrick Henry, Week 17 of 2025 against GB: 48 of 76 snaps, 36 carries for 216 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 4 touchdowns, 45.6 PPR points.

In 2025, Chase Brown played 17 games for CIN and scored 282.6 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing RB7.

He ran 232 times for 1019 yards and 6 touchdowns, and caught 69 of 88 targets for 437 yards.

He was on the field for 67 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Chase Brown, Week 18 of 2025 against CLE: 13 carries for 72 yards, 6 targets and 4 catches for 18 yards, 1 touchdown, 19.0 PPR points.

Chase Brown, Week 17 of 2025 against ARI: 47 of 77 snaps, 22 carries for 101 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 40 yards, 2 touchdowns, 29.1 PPR points.

Their other Week 2 calls

On the draft board

Ranked ahead

RB5 · CIN · bye 6

2025 vs rush yds line 7-10

Overall rank
12
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
4

Ranked behind

RB19 · BAL · bye 13

2025 vs rush yds line 6-11

Overall rank
46
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
4

The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 2, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

The gap between them

  • Spots apart on the board34
  • Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
  • Tiersboth in tier 4
  • Board size244 draftable players

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