Start Justin Herbert or Deshaun Watson? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Deshaun Watson over Justin Herbert in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Deshaun Watson at 17.0 points and Justin Herbert at 17.6, a gap of 0.6. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 17.7 fantasy points for Justin Herbert, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Justin Herbert at 222.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 19.5 rushing yards, with a 17% chance to score a touchdown (13, 16, 13 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 17.0 fantasy points for Deshaun Watson, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Deshaun Watson at 190.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 25.5 rushing yards, with a 21% chance to score a touchdown (15, 16, 13 and 15 books).

That puts Justin Herbert 0.6 points ahead of Deshaun Watson on the books.

Week 3 matchups

Justin Herbert and LAC visit BUF on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

BUF allowed 23.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 2 games, the 6th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 301 yards and 3.0 touchdowns a game against BUF, with no interceptions.

Injury status

Justin Herbert is not on the injury report.

Deshaun Watson is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Justin Herbert played 100 percent of LAC snaps, dropped back 66 times and threw an average of 10.0 air yards per attempt.

Justin Herbert, Week 1 against ARI: 55 of 55 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 209 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 29 yards.

Justin Herbert, Week 2 against LV: 68 of 68 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 192 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 2 yards.

Through Week 2, Deshaun Watson played 100 percent of CLE snaps, dropped back 65 times and threw an average of 6.5 air yards per attempt.

Deshaun Watson, Week 1 against JAX: 51 of 51 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 205 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 38 yards.

Deshaun Watson, Week 2 against TB: 58 of 58 snaps, 24 of 30 passes for 238 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 24 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.

He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Justin Herbert, Week 17 of 2025 against HOU: 63 of 63 snaps, 21 of 32 passes for 236 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 37 yards, 16.1 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Bryce Young over Justin Herbert.
• Start C.J. Stroud over Justin Herbert.
• Start Dak Prescott over Justin Herbert.
• Start Deshaun Watson over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Deshaun Watson over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Deshaun Watson over Bo Nix.