Start Justin Jefferson or DeVonta Smith? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Justin Jefferson over DeVonta Smith in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Justin Jefferson at 16.2 points and DeVonta Smith at 15.3, a gap of 0.9. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Justin Jefferson's number is scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have. Drafters take Justin Jefferson at ADP 4 and DeVonta Smith at 12.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 16.2 fantasy points for Justin Jefferson, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The books have Justin Jefferson at 69.5 receiving yards and 5.5 receptions, with a 38% chance to score a touchdown (14, 12 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 15.3 fantasy points for DeVonta Smith, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The books have DeVonta Smith at 72.5 receiving yards and 5.5 receptions, with a 34% chance to score a touchdown (13, 12 and 15 books).

That puts Justin Jefferson 0.9 points ahead of DeVonta Smith on the books.

Week 3 matchups

Justin Jefferson and MIN visit TB on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

TB allowed 24.9 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 2 games, the 8th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 117 yards and 0.5 touchdowns a game against TB.

DeVonta Smith and PHI visit CHI on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

CHI allowed 27.5 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 2 games, the 11th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 145 yards and a touchdown a game against CHI.

By points allowed to the position, DeVonta Smith has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Justin Jefferson is not on the injury report.

DeVonta Smith is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Justin Jefferson played 96 percent of MIN snaps, drew 36 percent of the targets, earned 51 percent of the air yards and had 21 percent of the red zone chances.

Justin Jefferson, Week 1 against GB: 60 of 65 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 92 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Justin Jefferson, Week 2 against CHI: 52 of 52 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 55 yards.

Through Week 2, DeVonta Smith played 91 percent of PHI snaps, drew 34 percent of the targets, earned 52 percent of the air yards and had 6 percent of the red zone chances.

DeVonta Smith, Week 1 against WAS: 52 of 55 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 53 yards.

DeVonta Smith, Week 2 against TEN: 67 of 76 snaps, 13 targets and 10 catches for 117 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Justin Jefferson played 17 games for MIN and scored 201.5 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR21.

He caught 84 of 141 targets for 1048 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 17 red zone targets and 597 air yards.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Justin Jefferson, Week 18 of 2025 against GB: 1 carry for 3 yards, 11 targets and 8 catches for 101 yards, 18.4 PPR points.

In 2025, DeVonta Smith played 17 games for PHI and scored 201.8 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR20.

He caught 77 of 113 targets for 1008 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 10 red zone targets and 715 air yards.

He was on the field for 89 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

DeVonta Smith, Week 18 of 2025 against WAS: 4 targets and 3 catches for 52 yards, 8.2 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Justin Jefferson over Chris Olave.
• Start Justin Jefferson over Christian Watson.
• Start Justin Jefferson over Davante Adams.
• Start Chris Olave over DeVonta Smith.
• Start DeVonta Smith over Christian Watson.
• Start Davante Adams over DeVonta Smith.