Start Justin Jefferson or Christian Watson? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Justin Jefferson over Christian Watson in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Justin Jefferson at 16.2 points and Christian Watson at 14.7, a gap of 1.5. Justin Jefferson's number is scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have. Drafters take Justin Jefferson at ADP 4 and Christian Watson at 18.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 16.2 fantasy points for Justin Jefferson, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The books have Justin Jefferson at 69.5 receiving yards and 5.5 receptions, with a 38% chance to score a touchdown (14, 12 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 14.7 fantasy points for Christian Watson, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The books have Christian Watson at 71.5 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions, with a 38% chance to score a touchdown (17, 15 and 18 books).

That puts Justin Jefferson 1.5 points ahead of Christian Watson on the books.

Week 3 matchups

Justin Jefferson and MIN visit TB on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

TB allowed 24.9 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 2 games, the 8th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 117 yards and 0.5 touchdowns a game against TB.

Christian Watson and GB host ATL on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

ATL allowed 30.3 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 2 games, the 16th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 178 yards and no touchdowns a game against ATL.

By points allowed to the position, Christian Watson has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Justin Jefferson is not on the injury report.

Christian Watson is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Justin Jefferson played 96 percent of MIN snaps, drew 36 percent of the targets, earned 51 percent of the air yards and had 21 percent of the red zone chances.

Justin Jefferson, Week 1 against GB: 60 of 65 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 92 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Justin Jefferson, Week 2 against CHI: 52 of 52 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 55 yards.

Through Week 2, Christian Watson played 83 percent of GB snaps, drew 28 percent of the targets, earned 31 percent of the air yards and had 17 percent of the red zone chances.

Christian Watson, Week 1 against MIN: 52 of 68 snaps, 8 targets and 6 catches for 147 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Christian Watson, Week 2 against NYJ: 53 of 59 snaps, 11 targets and 4 catches for 41 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Justin Jefferson played 17 games for MIN and scored 201.5 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR21.

He caught 84 of 141 targets for 1048 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 17 red zone targets and 597 air yards.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Justin Jefferson, Week 18 of 2025 against GB: 1 carry for 3 yards, 11 targets and 8 catches for 101 yards, 18.4 PPR points.

In 2025, Christian Watson played 10 games for GB and scored 132.4 PPR points, 13.2 a game, finishing WR46.

He caught 35 of 55 targets for 611 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 493 air yards.

He was on the field for 68 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Christian Watson, Week 17 of 2025 against BAL: 29 of 47 snaps, 6 targets and 5 catches for 113 yards, 1 touchdown, 22.3 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Justin Jefferson over Chris Olave.
• Start Justin Jefferson over Davante Adams.
• Start Justin Jefferson over DeVonta Smith.
• Start Christian Watson over Chris Godwin Jr..
• Start DeVonta Smith over Christian Watson.
• Start Christian Watson over DJ Moore.