Start Isaiah Likely or Jake Ferguson? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Isaiah Likely over Jake Ferguson in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project Isaiah Likely at 3.9 points and Jake Ferguson at 1.9, a gap of 2.0. Drafters take Isaiah Likely at ADP 139 and Jake Ferguson at 138. Market coverage on Isaiah Likely is 40 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 1.9 fantasy points for Jake Ferguson, with 33 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 3.9 fantasy points for Isaiah Likely, with 40 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

That puts Isaiah Likely 2.0 points ahead of Jake Ferguson on the books.

Week 1 matchups

Jake Ferguson and DAL visit NYG on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

NYG allowed 8.2 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 9th fewest in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 32 yards and no touchdowns against NYG.

Isaiah Likely and NYG host DAL on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

DAL allowed 29.7 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns against DAL.

By points allowed to the position, Isaiah Likely has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Jake Ferguson was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Isaiah Likely was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Jake Ferguson played 17 games for DAL and scored 188.1 PPR points, 11.1 a game, finishing TE5.

He caught 82 of 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 23 red zone targets and 293 air yards.

He was on the field for 67 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Jake Ferguson, Week 18 of 2025 against NYG: 2 targets and 1 catch for 5 yards, 1.5 PPR points.

Jake Ferguson, Week 17 of 2025 against WAS: 27 of 92 snaps, 2 targets and 1 catch for 6 yards, 1 touchdown, 7.6 PPR points.

Jake Ferguson, Week 16 of 2025 against LAC: 40 of 58 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 19 yards, 4.9 PPR points.

In 2025, Isaiah Likely played 14 games for BAL and scored 61.7 PPR points, 4.4 a game, finishing TE45.

He caught 27 of 36 targets for 307 yards and 1 touchdown, with 6 red zone targets and 190 air yards.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Isaiah Likely, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 2 targets and 2 catches for 32 yards, 5.2 PPR points.

Isaiah Likely, Week 17 of 2025 against GB: 53 of 76 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 27 yards, 5.7 PPR points.

Isaiah Likely, Week 16 of 2025 against NE: 22 of 55 snaps, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

How Week 1 went

Isaiah Likely scored 27.8 PPR points and Jake Ferguson scored 2.6.

The call was right: Isaiah Likely outscored Jake Ferguson by 25.2.

Isaiah Likely finished 24.0 points above the 3.9 the props implied.

Isaiah Likely, Week 1 against DAL: 34 of 69 snaps, 8 targets and 8 catches for 78 yards, 2 touchdowns, 27.8 PPR points.

Isaiah Likely finished as the week's TE1 in PPR scoring.

Jake Ferguson finished 0.7 points above the 1.9 the props implied.

Jake Ferguson, Week 1 against NYG: 44 of 58 snaps, 2 targets and 2 catches for 6 yards, 2.6 PPR points.

Jake Ferguson finished as the week's TE44 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Dallas Goedert over Jake Ferguson.
• Start Dalton Kincaid over Jake Ferguson.
• Start George Kittle over Jake Ferguson.
• Start Dallas Goedert over Isaiah Likely.
• Start Dalton Kincaid over Isaiah Likely.
• Start George Kittle over Isaiah Likely.