Start Jake Ferguson or Dalton Kincaid? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Dalton Kincaid over Jake Ferguson
Right: 18.0 to 2.6
- HOU D vs TE
- 19.7
- 6th most to TEs (2026)
- Snap share
- 72%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 21%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 18.0
- PPR pts
- Books imply
- 1.9
- fantasy pts
- NYG D vs TE
- 8.2
- 9th fewest to TEs (2026)
- Snap share
- 76%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 7%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 2.6
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Dalton Kincaid over Jake Ferguson in Week 1.
Jake Ferguson is priced by the books at 1.9 projected points and Dalton Kincaid is not priced at all, so we are leaning on where drafters take them. Drafters take Dalton Kincaid at ADP 134 and Jake Ferguson at 138.
What the books imply
No sportsbook posted a player market for Dalton Kincaid in Week 1.
Player prop markets imply 1.9 fantasy points for Jake Ferguson, with 33 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.
Week 1 matchups
Dalton Kincaid and BUF visit HOU.
HOU allowed 19.7 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 6th most in the league.
Tight ends caught passes for 137 yards and no touchdowns against HOU.
Jake Ferguson and DAL visit NYG on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.
NYG allowed 8.2 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 9th fewest in the league.
Tight ends caught passes for 32 yards and no touchdowns against NYG.
By points allowed to the position, Dalton Kincaid has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Dalton Kincaid was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Jake Ferguson was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Dalton Kincaid played 12 games for BUF and scored 126.1 PPR points, 10.5 a game, finishing TE20.
He caught 39 of 49 targets for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 312 air yards.
He was on the field for 40 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Dalton Kincaid, Week 18 of 2025 against NYJ: 3 targets and 3 catches for 48 yards, 7.8 PPR points.
Dalton Kincaid, Week 16 of 2025 against CLE: 19 of 50 snaps, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards.
Dalton Kincaid, Week 15 of 2025 against NE: 25 of 70 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 34 yards, 6.4 PPR points.
In 2025, Jake Ferguson played 17 games for DAL and scored 188.1 PPR points, 11.1 a game, finishing TE5.
He caught 82 of 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 23 red zone targets and 293 air yards.
He was on the field for 67 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Jake Ferguson, Week 18 of 2025 against NYG: 2 targets and 1 catch for 5 yards, 1.5 PPR points.
Jake Ferguson, Week 17 of 2025 against WAS: 27 of 92 snaps, 2 targets and 1 catch for 6 yards, 1 touchdown, 7.6 PPR points.
Jake Ferguson, Week 16 of 2025 against LAC: 40 of 58 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 19 yards, 4.9 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Dalton Kincaid scored 18.0 PPR points and Jake Ferguson scored 2.6.
The call was right: Dalton Kincaid outscored Jake Ferguson by 15.4.
Dalton Kincaid, Week 1 against HOU: 42 of 58 snaps, 6 targets and 5 catches for 130 yards, 18.0 PPR points.
Dalton Kincaid finished as the week's TE5 in PPR scoring.
Jake Ferguson finished 0.7 points above the 1.9 the props implied.
Jake Ferguson, Week 1 against NYG: 44 of 58 snaps, 2 targets and 2 catches for 6 yards, 2.6 PPR points.
Jake Ferguson finished as the week's TE44 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
TE13 · DAL · bye 14
2025 vs rec yds line 6-11
- Overall rank
- 141
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 4
Ranked behind
TE24 · BUF · bye 7
2025 vs anytime td line 5-7
- Overall rank
- 214
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 7
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board73
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 4 and tier 7
- Board size244 draftable players
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